CBA 0.49% $88.17 commonwealth bank of australia.

cba... up or down?

  1. 436 Posts.
    Hi kiddies,

    This chart from (use stock code "AU:CBA") shows CBA in an ambiguous upward pattern since $29.25... It could be either a 3-wave or a 5-wave structure, depending on how you choose to count it...

    BUT a very useful feature is the clear symmetric triangle centred around $29.90, because triangles most often (in theory, always) occur as the penultimate (second to last) waveform in the larger structure. This means that the last move up is probably the termination of the structure since $29.25, or at least the start of the last wave up within that structure.

    So if the move since $29.25 is a 3-wave correction, look for an impulsive move down real soon which should take CBA back below $29.25.

    If the move since $29.25 is impulsive (5-wave), then at least one more upwards 5-wave impulse is still coming, so any downward action should be corrective in nature and won't get below $29.25. This means CBA will be heading further on up. It could still just be part of a larger 3-wave correction, or it could be the start of a larger impulse which will go on up to mark new highs.

    If CBA manages to get much above a 78.6% retrace (ie, ~$30.35 on a log scale) then I'd say it's probably going to keep going up above $30.65. However, if asked right now, I'd say it's probably going down, because the preceeding move from $30.65 down to $29.25 looks much more like a 5-wave impulse than a 3-wave correction (including the MACD & RSI patterns).


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