CBA back to $45-50 again soon?, page-13

Agree with most of your post. Some people happy to call banks a buy at $30 and a sell at $15 lol.

One caution though, in Australia it's typically been big business loans going bad that has resulted in big bad debts for the banks. How many Virgin Airlines do they have on their books?

The interesting thing is that the banks have been relying more and more on housing loans for their profits and this time it's some multi-property owner investor that will be sweating with some highly geared investors likely to be now be in the red (negative equity). Without the tailwind of migration, property prices are likely to stagnate and ultimately slip backwards from here.

My gut feel is that the banks will scrape through ok but there are likely to be a few would be property moguls either working solely for the banks for the next 3 years or who get ground under the wheels as collateral damage and a few may lose the lot (imho especially if they're geared into high rise apartments).

Personally I'm a tentative buyer of banks at these levels but there's still a chance for things to get a lot worse.