I believe you can count the 5 million customers Vodafone have on TPG's network already.
I think it's almost as good as a done deal -Vodafone don't really have any choice but to do so for the following reasons:
- Vodafone has been bleeding money for years now and is losing money with a ~15% market share that seems unlikely to grow significantly anytime soon. Vodafone need what is probably a 20-25% market share to be marginally profitable which is more than Optus who can bundle ADSL/NBN, etc. So that kind of market share seems a bit fanciful for Vodafone.
- Vodafone are lacking key infrastructure in fibre which makes their network a strategically and financially inferior investment to Telstra, Optus and TPG. It's inevitable they die a slow death unless they acquire some fibre with would require billions in capex
- TPG is stronger than Vodafone financially, but balance sheet has no capacity to buy them out right now or in several years for that matter
- TPG will own all the infrastructure once they build their towers
- ACCC would unlikely allow Telstra or Optus to buy Vodafone, they would support TPG to keep the third competitor in the mobile/Internet market
- TPG have the power in any negotiations with Vodafone
Smells like iiNet all over again to me.
TPG will stitch up the 5million customers and then everyone will proclaim he's a genius again as EBITDA basically doubles to $1.5 billion.