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Californian bloom

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    The Californian almond bloom is usually in full-swing by the middle of February, but it looks like things might be delayed somewhat this year.

    One media report from earlier today suggested that less than 10% of California's almond trees are in bloom so far, which is not surprising as the temperatures in the almond growing regions of California have been unusually cold so far this month. In Fresno, for example, the highest maximum temperature seen so far for February has been 16 degrees Celsius.

    Looking over the Fresno weather records over the past decade, I couldn't find any other year with such a low maximum temperature over the first 12 days of February, and in most years the temperature hit 20 degrees at least once within this time frame.

    Temperature has significant bearing on the timing of the almond bloom, and you typically find that abnormally warm temperatures in February- as we saw last year- prompts early flowering. The unusually cold temperatures we have seen so far this month in the Californian almond growing regions is thus likely to delay the bloom by a few days. 

    The cause of the low temperature seems to be a pattern of intermittent rainfall, with most almond growing regions in central and northern California receiving around 2 inches of rain so far this month.  

    If the weather forecasts are to be believed, it doesn't look like California has seen the last of it.

    Remember the 'Pineapple Express'?. Long term shareholders might recall that massive atmospheric river from the Pacific that soaked northern parts of California in early 2017, which flooded orchards and roads and caused major headaches for beekeepers and almond growers.   

    It looks like another one of these atmospheric rivers might be about to drench California, as noted by this Washington Post article earlier this week:

    California has all the elements in place for nasty flooding because of an “atmospheric river” event:·

    Waterlogged soil from an already-wet winter? Check.·

    Many square miles of land scorched by fire? Check.·

    A thick snowpack on the mountaintops? Check.

    And wouldn’t you know it, the hours are ticking away before another atmospheric river makes landfall somewhere in the Golden State.

    ...Through the weekend, the forecast models examining the atmospheric river event, due to arrive in force early Wednesday, were having a hard time pinning down intensity, location and duration. But the looming threat of warm rain sending torrents of snowmelt thundering into rivers, canyons, channels and arroyos has everyone a little on edge.

    It was in early January 1997 that storms fed by the warm “Pineapple Express” melted snow high atop California’s mountain ranges, and that water coursed over saturated ground toward reservoirs already full because of an earlier wet month...


    The full impact of this current 'Pineapple Express' remains to be seen, but at time of writing the forecasts suggest that many of the almond growing regions in California could experience heavy rainfall between the 13th and the 17th.

    The implications of this on the almond bloom depends on the level of precipitation and the timing. Californian growers would be hoping for a decent soaking, maybe around 50 mm or so, provided it mostly fell before the almond bloom gets into full swing. All that moisture should dampen temperatures for at least a few days, which would slow the progress of the bloom and give the bees a better chance to get to the trees.

    Of course, if the rainfall is heavier, and if it continues to drench the state after the 15th, that would likely cause some problems for the almond bloom. With bee numbers down this year, almond growers really don't need any bloom-time complications such as flooding or disruptive weather discouraging bees from venturing out of their hives.

    On the other hand, the 'flash bloom' that some almond growers seem to have been fearing looks less likely at this point, although it could still happen in the southern almond growing regions of California, where the precipitation over the next few days is likely to be more moderate. If there are several days of clear skies after the rain, the moisture would probably quickly dry, and you might see a sudden rebound in temperatures, prompting most of the dormant almond trees to bloom simultaneously. So almond growers in California might not be quite out of the woods on that one yet, although this is just a suspicion.

    It will be interesting to see how things pan out  in California over the next few days. With a favourable orchard profile, and trees set for a rebound following on from a disappointing crop last year, if conditions are favourable, the Californians could be looking at a big crop for 2019, maybe even above 2.7 billion pounds. But just as farmers are advised not to count their chickens before they hatch, they would be similarly unwise to count their almonds before the bloom.

    Meanwhile, in the Australian almond growing regions, harvesting conditions look to be favourable over the week ahead, based on the forecasts. Given how dry it has been locally you wouldn't expect there to be any significant weather-related disruption to the Australian almond harvest this year.
 
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