KSX 0.00% 1.5¢ karmelsonix ltd

by my calculations...

  1. 15,276 Posts.
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    We have about a 60% chance for a very good day today...

    lol...which I guess means a 40% chance we do not?

    The 40% however is broken into 80% chance of flat and just 20% down...so not a lot of risk at current levels in my mind.

    So the final figures for me are...

    Up more than 3 points = 20%
    Up 1-3 points = 40%
    Flat - up/down within 1 point range = 20%
    Down more than 1 point = 20%

    It has done enough in my view, with little sign of propping or capping to create a false market...in other words, the players are letting it do it's thing.

    This is typical of ram-raid activity...allow the stock to sort itself out and find it's own key pivot points, both up and down, then when it has done enough, rush it with volume pursuit of key trigger levels.

    Of course, the ongoing "marketing" of the stock to the right people is not hurting any...and whilst there is no sign of larger holders exiting...which would typically see significant and sustained prop/pull activity and associated volume increase on the back of churn...we are well placed to see a continuation of recent activity.

    Interestingly, most "roadshows" only attract the serious buying in a gradual manner...and typically starting a week or so later...lets see what tranpsires.

    Whilst some might read the lack of prenmium on the options as a negative sentiment indicator, in actual fact they are now very close to par...which is some 2c above their recent levels the last time the stock was breaching current numbers.

    Such lagging of the options is very typical of a first-leg run on a stock that gets ahead of itself...we saw that when the heads ran to 24c on what I considered not enough volume to sustain the rise...it had not done enough. The subsequent lag on the options was typical of the expectation of a retrace to test support...which of course we got.

    This support appears to be 18c, even though the stock went to 17. Such overuns of support lines are in my view necessary to confirm the legitimacy of such a line...indeed, a recovery from below is symptomatic of a very strong underlying support, perhaps even more so than when a stock does not in fact fall below it's support.

    Many stocks that only just touch support often need to re-visit it once or twice for confirmation, whilst stocks that fall below and then recover (quickly) generally do not need to do so on the strength of the reversal signal that often results.

    Anyway...I am happy to buy and hold these...and suggest others keep their eye on it, as when they come the rallies will likely be quick.

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