Butterfly bear

  1. 1,383 Posts.
    I decided to try a few calls, though it is out of character, on BHP and some oils. Former is up 50% - if this keeps up I will have to call it Bulls Progress. However, keeping bear things in mind, I re-shorted MIM today. Banks are toppy too - but how many times have I said that?

    I have been puzzling for awhile on exactly what the XAO is doing. There are two scenarios - the first is short term bullish with the rise continuing until the last week of Sep, up to 3300 - but that would play havoc with normal timetables.

    The second is more in keeping with the prognosis I have had for a couple of years now, and is a pattern called the "bullish butterfly reversal". It is a pattern that requires some very precise ratios that have sort-of been met. It would involve the market continuing down from here to either 2500 or 2670, for an end to the bear market. Downturn to commence within a couple of days. I will stick with this one till proven wrong.


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