Brokers always find a reason why you should buy

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    Good morning,

    > As the US is now into the second worst bear market this century it is
    > important to remind ourselves that things do turn around at some stage. We
    > are seeing some signs of strength in the U.S economy with persistant
    > strength domestically. Following are some points to remember when looking
    > at this market-
    > Strategically 3 out of 4 top down drivers are pointing in the right
    > direction.
    > Valuation models are in attractive territory - the current valuation
    > position has not been seen since Sept 01,the depths of the Asian crisis,
    > the early 1990's and the early 1980's.
    > Liquidity remains supportive - the net liquidity position could over the
    > next 12 months be stronger than seen in the last few years, providing a
    > strong signal of liquidity driven support for equities.
    > Sentiment Measures - Our Asia / Pacific strategy team's "Risk - Love"
    > indicator of investor sentiment comprised of a combination of market
    > sentiment indicators is firmly in panic territory.Historically this has
    > provided a solid buy signal for Australian equities on a 12 month basis.
    > Earnings potentially the near term weak link. Our analysis suggests the
    > macro economic backdrop may not be sufficiently strong enough to match
    > earnings estimations in the market for the June 03 financial year.
    > Investment Cycle Theory
    > There are analyst whom purely concerntrate on following cycles to assist
    > in making financial decisions ( each to their own ), see the following
    > comments on
    > The 20 year cycle may hit its low around October of this year . The last
    > 20 year cycle lows were struck in 1942,1962,1982 and ?????????
    > The 20 week cycle is also showing signs of bottoming.
    > The Presedential Cycle , a four year cycle. This cycle hits a low
    > somewhere in the two years prior to the actual presidenatial election.
    > this cycle has been seen to have worked during every pre presidential
    > election except during the bear market period of 1930-32.
    > The obvious 'good six months' is in front of us whilst the 'bad six
    > months' is behind us . Investing November through to May has in the past
    > proven to be more profitable than the prior half of the investment year.
    > Finally the US market is on its way to a third consecutive down year - it
    > is stated on the Dow Theory Letters web site that the US market has never
    > been down four years in a row.
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