1. Most Discussed
  2. Gainers & Losers

Brokers always find a reason why you should buy

  1. gse1963

    9,485 Posts.
    1
    Read Below;

    Good morning,

    >
    > As the US is now into the second worst bear market this century it is
    > important to remind ourselves that things do turn around at some stage. We
    > are seeing some signs of strength in the U.S economy with persistant
    > strength domestically. Following are some points to remember when looking
    > at this market-
    >
    > Strategically 3 out of 4 top down drivers are pointing in the right
    > direction.
    >
    > Valuation models are in attractive territory - the current valuation
    > position has not been seen since Sept 01,the depths of the Asian crisis,
    > the early 1990's and the early 1980's.
    > Liquidity remains supportive - the net liquidity position could over the
    > next 12 months be stronger than seen in the last few years, providing a
    > strong signal of liquidity driven support for equities.
    > Sentiment Measures - Our Asia / Pacific strategy team's "Risk - Love"
    > indicator of investor sentiment comprised of a combination of market
    > sentiment indicators is firmly in panic territory.Historically this has
    > provided a solid buy signal for Australian equities on a 12 month basis.
    >
    > Earnings potentially the near term weak link. Our analysis suggests the
    > macro economic backdrop may not be sufficiently strong enough to match
    > earnings estimations in the market for the June 03 financial year.
    >
    >
    > Investment Cycle Theory
    > There are analyst whom purely concerntrate on following cycles to assist
    > in making financial decisions ( each to their own ), see the following
    > comments on www.dowtheoryletters.com.
    >
    > The 20 year cycle may hit its low around October of this year . The last
    > 20 year cycle lows were struck in 1942,1962,1982 and ?????????
    > The 20 week cycle is also showing signs of bottoming.
    > The Presedential Cycle , a four year cycle. This cycle hits a low
    > somewhere in the two years prior to the actual presidenatial election.
    > this cycle has been seen to have worked during every pre presidential
    > election except during the bear market period of 1930-32.
    > The obvious 'good six months' is in front of us whilst the 'bad six
    > months' is behind us . Investing November through to May has in the past
    > proven to be more profitable than the prior half of the investment year.
    >
    > Finally the US market is on its way to a third consecutive down year - it
    > is stated on the Dow Theory Letters web site that the US market has never
    > been down four years in a row.
    >

DISCLAIMER:
Before making any financial decisions based on what you read, always consult an advisor or expert.

The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd. Any information posted on the website has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and as such, you should before acting on the information or advice, consider the appropriateness of the information or advice in relation to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please be aware that any information posted on this site should not be considered to be financial product advice.

From time to time comments aimed at manipulating other investors may appear on these forums. Posters may post overly optimistic or pessimistic comments on particular stocks, in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for management to moderate all posts so some misleading and inaccurate posts may still appear on these forums. If you do have serious concerns with a post or posts you should report a Terms of Use Violation (TOU) on the link above. Unless specifically stated persons posting on this site are NOT investment advisors and do NOT hold the necessary licence, or have any formal training, to give investment advice.

Top

Thank you for visiting HotCopper

We have detected that you are running ad blocking software.


HotCopper relies on revenue generated from advertisers. Kindly disable your ad blocking software to return to the HotCopper website.

I understand, I have disabled my ad blocker. Let me in!

Need help? Click here for support.