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bom 3-month rainfall forecast, page-4

  1. zwu
    2,452 Posts.
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    Oliveoyl,

    I agree with you that it's difficult to even get a 4 day forecast right. However, 4-day forecast and 3-month 'seasonal' forecast are based on different methodologies. The 4-day forecast is based on atmospheric conditions (such as high/low pressure systems), whilst the 3-month one, as explained in the BoM website, is mainly on sea surface temperature distributions (such as El Nino). So these two are not really comparable.

    I might agree with you that "At present 3 out of 12 computer models say a return to normal by march".

    However, the following is from the BoM website (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml)

    **FORECAST ENSO CONDITIONS
    **FROM DECEMBER 2002

    *GROUP (May 2003) (Aug 2003)
    Bureau of Met (POAMA) Neutral Cool
    CSIRO Neutral Neutral
    CPC Warm Warm
    COLA (2) Not Available Not Available
    ECMWF Neutral Not Available
    LDEO (4) Warm Neutral
    NCEP Neutral Warm
    NOAA LINEAR INVERSE Neutral Neutral
    SCRIPPS/MPI Neutral Neutral
    NSIPP/NASA Warm Warm
    JMA Warm Not Available
    CLIPER Neutral Cool

    In the above 12 groups only 4 say in May El Nino will continue ("warm"), 7 say will not continue ('neutral') and 1 n/a. In Ausgust, El Neno will definately go according to these models.
 
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