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BoM 3-MONTH RAINFALL FORECAST

  1. zwu
    2,417 Posts.
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    Hi

    Here is the latest BoM Rainfall forecast for next three months:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20021115R.lr.gif

    (If the chart does not appear below, would Alpha please put it on this bourd for me?)



    According to this chart in the next 3 months in the north-west part of Victoria, where the TIM's olive and almond farm locate, the rainfall amount will be slightly above normal.

    For more information please visit

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20021115R.shtml

    or read the following:

    > THREE-MONTH SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK SUMMARY
    > Rainfall probabilities for Summer 2002/03, issued 15 November 2002
    >
    Summer rainfall odds near 50:50

    Summer rainfall odds are near 50:50 across the country with no strong swings
    towards wetter or drier conditions (see rain.gif attached). However, this
    masks the competing effects from the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

    According to the Bureau's National Climate Centre, the current pattern of
    above average Indian Ocean temperatures favours above median rainfall over
    the December to February period across eastern Queensland, eastern NSW and
    the Gascoyne and Pilbara regions in WA.

    Counteracting this signal, the current El Niño pattern of above average
    Pacific Ocean temperatures favours below median summer rainfall through
    essentially these same areas. The final probabilities therefore come out
    close to 50%.

    So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of 10 are
    expected to be wetter than average over the country, whilst about 5 out of
    10 are drier. This scenario is consistent with how El Niños have behaved in
    the past with eastern Australian rainfall commonly returning to closer to
    average values sometime between December and March. As a result, the average
    summer impact from El Niño is much less than it is in winter or spring.
    Regular updates of the progress of the El Niño are available at
    www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso .

    The statistical outlook model has moderate reliability in eastern NSW and
    southeast Queensland, and moderate to high reliability in western WA.


    > Background Information:
    >
    > * The Outlook probabilities are based on recent Indian and Pacific
    > Ocean temperatures. Both the Pacific and Indian oceans warmed somewhat
    > during October.
    > * The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are
    > summarized on the Bureau's web site at
    > > > .
    * October's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -7,
    almost unchanged from the -8 in September. The approximate SOI for the 30
    days ending 12th November was +2.
    > * This outlook represents a summary, more detail is available from the
    > contact people or web sites listed below.
    > * Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were
    > categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet
    > "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available
    > from the National Climate Centre.
    >
    > The above text, and a colour map, are on the WEB at
    > > > .
    > An online Seasonal Climate Outlook subscription service is available at
    > > .


 
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