Blackdekka’s daily rant, page-18

Transhipping Update for 21 st July
Thanks Stonedfish for your great work.

Min Res did 4 transhipments or 29m t pa on 21 July. The historical rates are below, 31.1 m t pa since June 1, and 27.8 m t pa for July so far.

The other main data isIron ore prices, 103.65 for August futures. The rally yesterday during the day was just for the first 6 months of the futures curve, but now it is throughout the next 4 years of the curve, which is even more important! June 26 is now at $99; Jun 27 is at $94, Jun 28 is at $90!

If these prices are correct and hold, and we know the futures market is the best predictor of the future price of Iron Ore, (in spite of all the investment banking analysts and other ' smart' people saying they know better!), then the shorts in MINs get absolutely smashed.

SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Prices and SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Futures Prices - Barchart.com

With Iron ore at 103.65 the Onslow margin per tonne for Min Res is:
$38.4 !

Up 3% on yesterday's already very high margin.

Mins will generate $19.80 per share of free cash over the next 3 years at spot rates. That is terrific!

The BC Iron mines for MINs become quite profitable at these rates too, which is not included in the below numbers.

The global iron ore miners joined the rally overnight with BHP closing at $40.76 equivalent, 1% above the Aus close, and FMG also closing above Aus close.

Aus futures are up 0.14%.

Shorts are at:13.90% on 15 July; this data is excellent because the losses they have incurred to date will seem quite small versus the losses they are about to incur.

My trading model has MINs opening at:
$30.41.

I've got no idea where MINs actually trades today.

My feel is also as with other days the good buying may be early in the day and anything in the high 29s, eg $29.90, or lower is a good entry price.

I'll provide updated buy levels around 10.30 am.

I'm buying because all the fundamental data is good for MINs: it trades on price to FCF multiples of 4.4 and 3.8 for Fy 26 and Fy 27 and at spot rates generates $19.80 or 66% of its equity value over the next 3 years, which is very cheap.

Enjoy the day.

	MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services)						$38.4
	Date since	Total days	Rate shipped per day tonnes	Total transhipper unloads	Total transhipped (tonnes million)	Rate per year(million tonnes)	Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m	% of nameplate
	05-May-25	79	76962	304	6.08	28.1	$1,080	80%
	01-Jun-25	51	85098	217	4.25	31.1	$1,195	89%
	01-Jul-25	21	76190	80	1.6	27.8	$1,070	80%
	Nameplate		95825			35.0	$1,345	100%
	Free cash flow (FCF) estimates for entire business at nameplate capacity (35 m t pa)
		Fy 26	Fy 27	Fy 28	Mkt cap $ m	Share price
	FCF $ m	1327	1545	973	5830	$29.99
	Price/FCF	4.4	3.8	6.0
			Cumulative		FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28)
	FCF per share	$6.83	$14.78	$ 19.78	66%
	Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025					Iron Ore price US$
	Airlie	Coolibah	Montebello	Rosily	Peak	$103.65
	65	77	65	76	20.5	Aud Usd
						0.652