Blackdekka’s daily rant, page-16

Transhipping Update for 20th July
Min Res did 4 transhipments or 29m t pa on 20 July. The historical rates are below, 31.1 m t pa since June 1, and 27.7 m t pa for July so far, and 32 m t pa over the last 9 days.

The other main data is Iron ore prices, they went down friday evening but rose again over the weekend to 102.15 for August futures.
SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Prices and SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Futures Prices - Barchart.com

With Iron ore at 102.15 the Onslow margin per tonne for Min Res is:
$37.4 !

Mins will generate $19.40 per share of free cash over the next 3 years at spot rates. That is terrific!

BHP closed in the US 1% below Aus close, but i suspect will trade above the US close price today with iron ore prices increasing over the weekend.

Lithium miners: Abelmarle up 1.8% friday evening.

Aus futures are down 0.56%.

Shorts are at : 13.92%on 14 July, which is excellent.

My trading model has MINs opening at:$28.80.

I've got no idea where MINs actually trades today; it may in fact trade up given the iron ore price rally on the weekend, stronger lithium prices and continued short covering.

My feel is also as with other days the good buying may be early in the day and $28.70 is a good entry price.

I'm buying because all the fundamental data is good for MINs: it trades on price to FCF multiples of 4.4 and 3.7 for Fy 26 and Fy 27 and at spot rates generates $19.40 or 67% of its equity value over the next 3 years, which is very cheap.

Enjoy the day.

	MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services)						$37.4
	Date since	Total days	Rate shipped per day tonnes	Total transhipper unloads	Total transhipped (tonnes million)	Rate per year(million tonnes)	Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m	% of nameplate
	05-May-25	78	76923	300	6	28.1	$1,051	80%
	01-Jun-25	50	85200	213	4.26	31.1	$1,165	89%
	01-Jul-25	20	76000	76	1.52	27.8	$1,039	79%
	Nameplate		95825			35.0	$1,310	100%
	Free cash flow (FCF) estimates for entire business at nameplate capacity (35 m t pa)
		Fy 26	Fy 27	Fy 28	Mkt cap $ m	Share price
	FCF $ m	1295	1513	951	5653	$29.08
	Price/FCF	4.4	3.7	5.9
			Cumulative		FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28)
	FCF per share	$6.66	$14.45	$ 19.34	67%
	Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025					Iron Ore price US$
	Airlie	Coolibah	Montebello	Rosily	Peak	$102.15
	65	75	64	75	20.5	Aud Usd
						0.652