XJO 0.62% 6,004.8 s&p/asx 200

So USA dodged black Friday bullet last week. Tonight could...

  1. 95 Posts.
    So USA dodged black Friday bullet last week. Tonight could finally be what we've all been waiting for now that chartists have had their little triangles filled or whatever it is they do, with this technical bounce also known as end of October window dressing by American funds.

    Everyone is waiting for this next shoe to drop, and tonight should be it. 11.30pm NSW time tonight is when USA GDP data is due, and as long as their gov does not manipulate the numbers we should get a clearer view of accelerating recession (though I am genuinely worried gov will fudge these numbers, thus prolonging this pain as they have with many other bail-out measures since Bear Sterns bail-out.)

    I'd like to see DOW fall 2000 points + plus tonight to repeal this technical bounce and send us in the correct direction but I don't have much confidence in market to price this effectively at the moment. So tonight the market may or not plummet, but the economic picture should set up the stage for the next leg down, and the market will have to acknowledge this at some point soon.

    If you're wondering what I'm talking about I'm referring to the fact that S and P 500 is currently on 11.81 times earnings (their P/E ratio). Now if you think that's fair value going into a USA/UK led worldwide recession then good luck to you.

    I for for one, as a fundamentalist, simply do not. This is way overvalued for the up-coming negative growth prospects.

    If I had a dollar for every job cut in USA already underway, I'd already be rich. UK is in at least as much trouble as USA, and XJO will as always fall in lock-step as it is all we have ever known how to do. Check the co-relation!

    I have finally checked out elliotwave.com and believe their methodology with their "socionomics" puts even Warren Buffet to shame, and I believe they are worth the hype that has been anecdotally assigned to them by people here on HC and other websites.

    This market is and has been way to positive and optimistic throughout these past falls and capitulation is so far away I still can not see it without a hubble telescope.

    GenY
 
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