BGT 2.86% 7.2¢ bio-gene technology ltd

BGT Overview and Analysis

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    I've been doing a bit of research / reading on BGT as of late and topped up on my holdings for the second week in a row as I just see so much potential with this company's tech. The expected newsflow over the upcoming months is going to be very very interesting. Here are some of my thoughts / links to information, obviously DYOR.

    In terms of the share price / chart we are in a decent uptrend with some of the better liquidity and on market support seen in a long time. It seems we are catching the attention of some HNW / insto's who are soaking quite a lot of stock for how tight the register already is. The most notable buyers are Shaw / Morgans who have been net buyers the last 2-3 months, the biggest net sellers have been Patterson and Commsec over this period - read into that what you will. I posted broker data in an earlier post if you would like to reference.

    Here is the most recent broker data I could get a hold of:



    Chart (thanks to poster @stotes for providing the chart):



    One of the better overviews of BGT that is available is the analyst report by Henslow which is linked below. I highly recommend giving the report a read if you haven't already (note that it is a bit outdated and the company has made progress on several fronts, but I still found the core information very useful): https://bio-gene.com.au/investor-relations/analyst-reports/

    A few pieces, among many, from the Henslow's report that caught my attention:

    "The insecticide market has a total value of +US$31.1bn, with resistance to remaining insecticidal compounds growing. The Chemical industry is desperately seeking new compounds to combat this issue."

    "Each chemical class identified by IRAC attack pests in different ways (Novel Modes of Action). Beta-Triketones have shown evidence of targeting a unique site, which is subject to proprietary confidentiality, but appear to interfere with the Nerve & Muscle system of pests. The discovery of Beta-Triketones as compounds capable of being used as insecticides is effectively a 1 in +140,000 chance, what we understand as being the scientific equivalent of finding a needle in a haystack. Additional MoA’s being discovered and introduced into rotation do not present a competitive threat to BGT’s compound, but a mechanism that extends the longevity of all MoA’s, curtailing resistance."

    "BGT will replicate the success of Nihon’s platform technology developed for the diamides insecticide class. Novel MoA’s being used in scale is extremely rare, the last being commercialised in 2008 by Japanese Company Nihon Nohyaku: Diamides (Novel 28). By 2013 (5-years after first use) Diamides recorded global sales of +US$1.4bn, which it has maintained annually, hence once discovered Novel MoA’s have the potential to be extremely valuable."


    The discovery of new compounds with a novel mode of action (yet to be confirmed by IRAC) is very rare not to mention very valuable if it is taken up in the mainstream market. I would highly suggest referencing the report / DYOR with respect to MOA's. We can also see that BGT is continuing to work on a submission to IRAC as seen in this note in the recent 2019 Appendix 4E and Annual Report:

    "Complementing our testing work, we have advanced our studies for Flavocide regarding the Mode of Action, which will serve to support a future submission by Bio-Gene for a new classification of insecticide."

    It appears that it's just a matter of time / resources before we get a complete submission in to IRAC for review. I would imagine that our potential commercial partners would assist in funding / expediting this process when the time comes.

    I also enjoyed the following soundbites from the CEO, which are worth a listen if you haven't had a chance. Richard has had to stay very tight lipped about who has been testing the tech, which kind of comes through in his delivery:

    https://www.boardroom.media/broadcast?eid=5d6e0f488ab2617d254fa832 - 04/09/2019

    http://bio-gene.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/190327-BGT-Investor-Call.mp3 - 27/03/2019


    From the most recent Ann:

    "Dr. Nayak will be presenting on Flavocide use in grain storage pest control at the 12th Conference of the IOBCWPRS Working Group on the Integrated Protection of Stored Products (IPSP) in Pisa, Italy on 4th - 6 th September 2019." The topic from their website states Dr. Nayak will be speaking about the "Potential of Flavocide as a new grain protectant to manage major resistant stored grain pests: an Australian case study”.

    The marketing of BGT has been a bit lacking in the past, probably for good reason, as the focus has largely been on testing. But in my mind these kinds of signs are a good indication that commercialization is becoming a greater priority and the company is making a concerted effort to get the word out.

    At a more macro level / global point of view there seems to be plenty of news and general sentiment recognizing that we need to change the way we do business. This is a far larger topic but it is quite easy to get a grasp on the need for new modes of action.

    Anywho, there is plenty of information out there, this is just a few ramblings from someone very excited about the company's future.

    GL All
 
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