Bears progress

  1. 1,383 Posts.
    The current situation is that the market will take a breather for a week or two before the next five waves down. 3100 likely, 3200 possible - as are all kinds of surprises on the downside.

    My most bullish scenario at the moment is about 2500 followed by a resumption of the bull. That level should certainly see some respite. But much lower ultimate values are possible.

    For the meantime - out of shorts, even holding a CBA long. RIO would also have gone well, and a couple of lucky punters even managed to jump on the longside of COH.

    The kinds of figures we saw on the US selloff would normally have heralded a 40 week bottom, but absolutely no-one seems to be willing to call it. Although US breadth was reasonably OK, volume is not impressive for a deep reversal. I'm still hanging out for the SPX short at 950. Tonight - down a hundred points atm, but that is just a bit of a pullback.
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