Bear country

The US is setting up for a last push upwards, though it is struggling against heavy resistance. This will take it out of the bollinger band, and also make the second leg up the same size as the first. Early Sep is supposed to be the turnaround, but I suspect something earlier. Probably time to start moving out of longs and reversing.

As often I am of two minds as to where the market is headed. On the one hand, things are pretty much following last Sep in recovery and much of the scare stuff has died down. On the other a) the time of year is against a bottom. b) most markets finished the downside in the middle of nowhere. They dont usually do that. c) Elliott theory requires a fifth wave down to finish the bear sequence. If we dont get it, the bear will continue longer term.

On the whole, still Bear Country