NAB 0.14% $34.64 national australia bank limited

*banks to make huge comeback!***, page-5

  1. 4,941 Posts.
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    Hi Helraiser,

    I agree. As much as this was suggested in several of my HC postings back in March and in April. Back then, I was providing some support for my view that NAB would be trading much higher than it was currently tradicng at by April 2005.

    In the following post (16/04/04), I mooted that "the forthcoming sale of the UK and Irish" operations would return capital of $4B, plus a special dividend.

    This was underpinned by my personal view at the time that these operations were worth upwards of $10B on an enterprise value basis.

    Yesterday, UBS Warburg released a research note suggesting that the UK and Irish operations were worth upwards of $10.2B in any mooted sale. This was reported today in the AFR (@p24).

    No matter which way you look at it, exiting from the UK and from Ireland will form the fundamental basis for driving up NAB's share price in the future.

    The value is there and perhaps that was why the recent rumours concerning HSBC were being circulated - not so much as a bid for the NAB as a whole, but more likely conducting due diligence (or similar) for a UK /Irish bid. For HSBC (a UK based bank), such a deal would offer better synergistics prospects than the equivalent of a foreign managed operation being maintained by the NAB.

    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Subject re: nab - market cap dn big time . profit warning
    Posted 16/04/04 17:26 - 151 reads
    Posted by Grant62
    Post #275656 - in reply to msg. #275580 - splitview

    In contrast, the forthcoming sale of the UK and Irish operations will return upwards of $4B in capital, plus a further amount to be accounted for as a special franked dividend towards shareholders.

    The timing to this is likely to be sooner rather than later.

    That will then leave the NAB with core business operations generating >$3.5B on a normalised basis, with about 1.5B shares on issue, and with minimal external interference (ie: overseas problems), or domestic loan book issues.

    Then the NAB can concentrate on its core focus Australia and the near region, and a share price nearer to $40 by April 2005, than the near current $29.70.
    All the best,
    Grant62



 
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