ABS a.b.c. learning centres limited

back of envelope calcs

  1. 15,782 Posts.
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    Current MC $1bn

    Approx 2500 centres

    plus 20% of funtastic and a few other bits and pieces.
    (I wont include these in my calculations)

    Ive looked at the last few sales of Child Care centres and most (when bought in volume) sell for 950k each including goodwill blah blah etc etc.

    examples was recent AUS sales and UK purchasers and US purchasers.

    2500 x 950,000 =

    2.375bln - doesn't allow for funtastic or other bits.
    1.8bln less debt

    leaves $575 mill in the kitty.

    A company with $500 mill in the bank........what MC should they have?

    Over $1bln.......yes

    Although very rough calcs I think the MC should be more like 1.5bln or around $3 per share.

    Also the 8c per share div is payable April 08

    ex date 14 march
    rec date 20 march.

    Lastly as per the annual report.....

    "tangible assets" valued at $1.75 per share.....

    about $850 mill or $340k per property

    to sell the 2500 at $950k each.......

    600k per property in goodwill "approx"

    is that fair and reasonable??.....im not sure

    2 times the value of the tangible asset in goodwill or 2/3 in goodwill.....fair??....happy to hear comments.

    Please feel free to smash this to pieces if need be.......all just a starting point for discussion.


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