Merlin,
What is your take on my post yesterday, responding to your earlier post, re the possible scenarios SKI-AUZ and SKI-Ecopro-GEM?
I have had some more thoughts on it.
Clearly bot Ecopro and GEM are going gangbusters! They are in the box seat with SKI, being the current suppliers (GEM indirectly and Ecopro directly), and given their respective expansion plans, will be far bigger than AUZ can ever be.
Clearly, also, they will have sufficient precursor chemicals (GEM) and processed NCM cathode materials (Ecopro) to provide all of SKI's cathode requirements indefinitely.
It is now apparent that SKI does not 'need' AUZ in the way that that has been argued on this forum over and over. It has very clear alternate pathways.
But the questions remain - what, precisely, is the interest in AUZ and how firm is it?
Is SKI being driven by bottom-line profitability considerations OR a perceived need to secure supply of precursor material OR both?
If the former, it may be a case that SKI feels that Ecopro's prices are too high and that it can save $'s by:
1. setting up its own cathode manufacturing capability and removing both Ecopro and GEM from its supply chain (in 3-5 years time), or
2. purchasing precursors directly (from the likes of AUZ and Tianqui) and supplying them to Ecopro (and their other NCM cathode suppliers), thereby just removing GEM from its supply chain.
If the latter, cost will be a secondary consideration, and SKI may be thinking that GEM may not be a reliable supplier of precursor's in the long term perhaps because of favouritism towards Chinese battery manufacturers OR hedging in case the Morowali project is delayed/does not get off the ground.
Or maybe it is happy with the current supply chain - in terms of both cost and security - but can also see the benefits of keeping the relationship with AUZ open (for contingency reasons) because there is no cost in doing so.
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