aussie dollar

  1. 5,881 Posts.

    The March Australian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of .7884. Further resistance is at the weekly November high of .7938 or even the weekly 2004 high of .7980. A strong break out above 80 cents could allow the market to make a run for the 1996 high of .8210. Near term support is at last week's low of .7770 (the March Australian dollar has made higher weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed below only once in the last month. A break below this near term support could temporarily signal the end of the bull run and take the market down to the current February low of .7591 in confluence with the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7577. A break below this price level could knock another penny off of the Aussie and take it to last month's low of .7475. (The Aussie dollar has only broken a previous monthly low once in the last seven months). If this low is broken the market could quickly visit the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7396 in confluence with the December low of .7388. Open Interest is at a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts Commercials are holding a new record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are holding a new record size net long position as well!

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