ASX:NIC - Target Price: $1.87

Finally found some time to do some valuation exercises for NIC. Note that this is my target price for NIC when ENC is up and running and when Hengjaya is finally running to 19mtpa (as per environmental approval), both anticipated to be achieved within next 6-12 months.

This should give us a good 129% upside from today's closing price of $0.815. I believe that I have been fairly conservative in this as I have not factored in much nickel price upside at all. I think when Nickel price is at its more normal range of USD20-25k/t, then the margins for NIC will be much higher and can easily propel NIC's share price to >$2.50.

RKEF
Production	120000	tonnes/annum (as per Sep 2025 level)
Cash Cost	$10,000	per tonne (assume they can maintain at Sep 25 level)
Price	$13,000	per tonne (Assume nickel price is up by another 15% from today's NPI, easily achievable given nickel is up by 10% already, and anticipated to go higher given lead-lag relationship between NPI and LME nickel)
RKEF EBITDA	$360,000,000	USD
HPAL (10%)
Production	8400	tonnes/annum
Cash Cost	7700	per tonne (assume Sep 2025 figures)
Price	13300	per tonne (assume Sep 2025 figures, including trading profit)
HPAL EBITDA	$47,040,000	USD
ENC (55% at 80ktpa, assume economics similar to HPAL)
Production	44000	tonnes/annum
Cash Cost	7700	per tonne (assume Sep 2025 figures)
Price	13300	per tonne (assume Sep 2025 figures, including trading profit)
ENC EBITDA	$246,400,000	USD
Hengjaya Mine
Production	19,000,000	tonnes/annum
Cash Cost	$15	per tonne (assume even higher than Sep 2025)
Price	$30	per tonne (assume 20% higher than Sep 2025, noting that nickel price has already been up by ~10% than the average in Sep 2025)
Hengjaya EBITDA	$285,000,000	USD
Total EBITDA	$938,440,000	USD
EV/EBITDA	7.0	(Using mid point range and median for a number of miners)
Enterprise Value	$6,569,080,000	USD (at EV/EBITDA ratio of 7)
Net Debt	$1,136,000,000	USD (as at 30 Jun 2025, plus US$253M for remaining ENC payment)
Valuation of Equity	$5,433,080,000	USD
AUD:USD FX	$0.67	Current FX
# of shares	4,341,000,000
Target NIC Share Price	$1.87