According to me, the most comparable company for Aspen is probably Ingenia (INA), as the 2 companies have the same portfolio of businesses : - land lease communities, - rental (for everyone), - holiday park, - and a development business.
One of the main difference between the 2 companies is their geographic exposure : Aspen is mainly focused on SA and WA, while INA is mainly focused on NSW and QLD (together 80 %), with the rest in Vic (while Aspen has a very low exposure to Vic). Regarding the parks business, Ingenia has a much larger exposure to the tourism business with 82 % of park revenues (vs a low exposure to seasonal tourism for Aspen).
Listening to INA new CEO (John Carfi, since April 24), it is clear that INA was not as selective as Aspen with their property acquisitions in the past. A good example is that the company had to do a major goodwill impairment in FY 24 regarding a portfolio that they bought in the past (2021 ?).
INA new CEO wants also to focus more on the land lease business (including development), while they could unlock some capital in the tourism related business.
Like Aspen, Ingenia has significantly revised upwards its forecasts for FY 25, expecting 20-23 % EBIT increase vs an initial estimate of 10-15 % growth.
INA is also putting a strong focus on its development business. Both companies had a large increase for their development profit during H1 25 : + 103 % for Ingenia vs + 68 % for Aspen. During H1 25, development represented 41 % of its earnings vs 34 % for Aspen. Out of the development business, Aspen grew its underlying OP by 18 %, while Ingenia EBIT (out of development) increased by only 5 %.
Regarding valuation of their portfolios, there are also differences between the 2 companies : - for lifestyle business, Aspen uses a cap rate around 6 % vs 5.04 % for Ingenia (H1 25), - for the parks business, Aspen uses also higher cap rate : around 9 % vs 7.76 % for Ingenia (H1 25). So, Aspen seems to be more cautious (using higher cap rates), but it may be misleading as the 2 companies have a different geographic mix.
Looking at their rental business, the company average weekly rents were quite comparable during H1 25 : . residential : 373 $ for Aspen vs 334 $ for INA, . lifestyle : 212 $ for Aspen vs 208 $ for INA. INA does not disclose its average rent for parks, so we can't compare.
APZ Price at posting:
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