Arbitration: US$120m (A$184.6m) / 459.7m shares on issue = A$0.40 per share (theoretical maximum)

I just ran the math on the theoretical maximum outcome considering "The Company is seeking no less than US$120 million in damages.", a current A$ of US$0.65 and 459,737,188 outstanding shares.

This maximum outcome of 40 cents per share does not consider any potential uplift (e.g. interest), the share for the litigation funder (not disclosed; 30-40% typical), a potential settlement discounts, time value discounting, and collection/enforcement risks to cash in the claim from a country like Burkina Faso.

This is essentially a speculation on an expropriation claim. A professional litigation funder provided a non-recourse financing, i.e. they are quite convinced that they will make money on this project.

I am not a financial analyst and you have to do your own research, but considering all these facts I would guess today's net present value might be around 10 cents per Sarama share.

Here is the Burkina Faso section of the June 2025 quarterly report: