Hello All,And congratulations for LTSH's who have seen this...

Hello All,

And congratulations for LTSH's who have seen this through to where we are now, a legitimate commercial business.

I have read the most recent announcement a number of times, as it is my experience a lot of work goes into the wording, of what are relatively short statements.

Here are my musings, and are not based on anything but the information provided so far from various forums and comments.

One of the things that has been on my mind since the Ryoncil approval has been the increased discussions around the use of MSC's for various other indications. Something LTSH's are well aware of.

However, to maintain first mover advantage, you need to move quickly, and Mesoblast simply does not have the capacity to move on all the significant indications it could do so with, at once.

So here is my view on where I think things are heading

The most recent announcement mentions Strategic Partnerships (Plural). In interviews this is also mentioned. Also different types of partnerships, such as commercial or licensing.
It is clear they are setting up new manufacturing in the US, as it was stated the Heart BLA is delayed one quarter due to this.

Regarding the recent 125M debt facility. They stated they paid of the Senior Debt (Oaktree). This was sitting at circa 40M. And they partly paid off the subordinate debt, which was 30M when drawn down. Then will pay the balance out by mid year from Revenue. (interesting, why not pay out completely with a better funding arrangement). So for arguments sake, I assume they paid 10M of this off. This leaves 75M left of the Debt facility and 145M on hand. Silviu said the burn is around 15M per quarter.
So in my view they they need the extra funds for the manufacturing set up. As this would be a precursor to any strategic partnerships of any type. (particularly US manufacturing in current climate)

Then in my view we will see many partnerships come into play, in the form of licensing agreements, where Meso licenses the IP for a particular indication and a suitable partner with the appropriate resources to develop and commercialise a particular indication, with Financial benefits back to Meso for the IP.

This way they can bring this solution to many indications very quickly, while protecting and maintaining the value for Meso.

I know for the LTSH's we have had many years of waiting, however it simply cannot go on much longer, now the the First MSC is approved. If we do not bring to Market, then given the $$ we are talking, someone will. Sometimes the rule of law does not always stop them.

I am certain our management team are aware of this and will act accordingly.

Fast forward even only 3 years and it is hard to see this not trading at 10, 20, 50X what it is now.

Jut my Thoughts DYOR

Cheers