KPO 16.7% 0.4¢ kalina power limited

"The Company believes it is on track to deliver or surpass its...

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    "The Company believes it is on track to deliver or surpass its previously provided project capacity forecasts".

    Just to recap on what those are, next year (2018) they are forecasting to start 29 MW of new capacity (on top of 8 MW started this year).

    Generally, the shorter the time frame, the greater the confidence in forecasts being accurate.

    This seems to indicate that management are still extremely confident that the forecasts for this year and next year are not only accurate and achievable but also potentially conservative.

    Each MW of capacity generates revenue to KPO of US $500,000 or more for "specialised engineering services with EPC margin on overall project cost".

    29 MW x US $500,000 = US $14.5mil = AUD $19mil revenue.

    The interesting aspect of these forecasts is that they are based on MW not number of projects, that means the number of projects can be less if the capacity of those projects is higher.

    For example, from a revenue perspective two 4 MW projects is worth the same as one 8 MW project.

    I've heard anecdotally that one of the pipeline projects is bigger than 8 MW and that this would exceed the entire 2017 forecast so you can see how the capacity forecasts can easily be exceeded if the projects are bigger capacity.

    As such shareholders should be focused on the capacity of each project not simply the raw number of projects because it's the capacity that influences the revenue and how the forecasts have been framed.
    Last edited by refresher: 28/04/17
 
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