MOZ 3.45% 14.0¢ mosaic brands limited

That's a pretty accurate assessment of investment style....

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    That's a pretty accurate assessment of investment style. Billabong were a very good performer when retail was booming and they were on the pointy end of the surfware trend. Retail has been a very difficult space for a good decade now but at any point there are bright spots. Nick Scali, ARB, JB HI-FI, Dominos and Blackmores have all been successful at various times despite weak sentiment for long stretches . Apparel has been a laggard.

    Ultimately retailing is about providing products that people want to buy. In apparel a good buyer with an eye for a trend is worth their weight in gold. When a business fails, commonly they have a big pile of stock - in other words they bought the wrong stuff. Every item placed on the shelf is priced for profit. If they sell the stock in a reasonable time frame the business will be successful. One thing to monitor as a leading indicator of business health is stock turnover. This is shown as the number days that it takes to completely turnover all stock.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
    0 Year Average Days Inventory (stock turnover) Profit $M (pre-abnormals)
    1 2011 47.1  
    2 2012 45.4 -3
    3 2013 44.2 -2
    4 2014 41.9 -2
    5 2015 36.7 -4
    6 2016 36.3 2
    7 2017 23.8 9

    For NBL the trend for turnover has been down, time to turn stock over has halved since 2011. The recent sharp fall no doubt partly reflects the influence of the additional businesses and it will take a couple of reporting periods to get a handle on the overall trend. However, it is no accident that with a faster stock turnover we are seeing increasing profits.
 
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