LNG 4.17% 23.0¢ liquefied natural gas limited

Thanks for your reply DEL, unlike others here, who when their...

  1. 682 Posts.
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    Thanks for your reply DEL, unlike others here, who when their uninformed ramping is questioned, they don’t reply because they have nothing to back up their comments; you have posted your reasons for your valuation and I respect that.

    GV is desperate to sign contracts and has lowered the price to $2.35. Speculating that the average price for the 8.8mtpa will be $2.80 is like those who speculated that IDG had buyers lined up for the whole 8.8mtpa. Natural gas traders are predicting 50% of LNG sales in a few years will be from the spot market (at lower prices); and just assuming rising US natural gas and HH future prices is how many of the share holders on these threads got into the position they are now in.

    EPC cost is US $495 - $554 per tonne (AU $696 - $781 / tonne)
    Magnolia construction cost is US $4.354 Billion (AU $6.13 Billion)

    Tolling fee of US$2.35 / mcf
    OPEX AU $$0.35 - $0.45 mmbtu (US$0.28)
    $0.07 going as a success fee to the contractor
    This lowers the EBITA margin to under $2.00 / mmbtu

    Land tax rate 2%
    Corporate tax rate 25%
    Repayments to Stonepeak $1.5 Billion over 12 years (+ interest of 6.5% pa return)
    Debt Financing Repayments (70% of project costs) over $2.8 Billion (including 6.5 % pa interest)

    I don’t know how Stonepeak’s interest will be returned but it will result in a heavily diluted share price. The remaining 70% of required debt to fund operations will be at a similar rate as Stonepeak, ie 6.5%.

    The interest on a US$4.5 Billion project funded by debt and equity alone starts to get close to your repayments, and that’s not including the principle loans, and other taxes.


    If you want to clarify your numbers further, I’m happy to respond as so far all I’m seeing on these threads is a lot of speculation and the aftermath of what happens to all those holders that have fallen victim to it over the years.

    Here are a few more facts to consider against all the speculation:

    Meridian Energy has gone
    LNG’s accumulated losses are $421 Million
    Loss for the last year was around $23 Million
    Stonepeak and Valinor have interests elsewhere
    Cost risks apply to KBR’s LSTK price if and when the contract is renewed this June
    2018 losses attributable to members of over $17 Million, up over 30% since the previous year (more now!!)
    Major quarterly cash outflows are to employees and performance and share based expenses (Exec’s and BOD)




 
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