SEA 0.00% 16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

"The capitalist system functioned in its ruthless and efficient...

  1. 10,692 Posts.
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    "The capitalist system functioned in its ruthless and efficient way" - pretty much as simple as that. 100% agree J!

    My views on SEA (and many others) are also conditioned by this thought bubble
    "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?".

    So the first thing to ask yourself (specifically to SEA) what has changed? That might be a long list or a short list depending on the investor. It will also govern how much history you examine in depth.

    I'll limit it to 3 "data points" for sake of discussion given the lengthy discussion already covered.

    1. Management - NO (significant) CHANGE in 5 YEARS - concede X-man's point & 5 yr chart pounding on table
    2. SEA Financials - COMPLETE CHANGE in last year - 5 YEAR chart IRRELEVANT - (& why I changed my mind)
    3. Macro Environment - VOLATILE - constantly changing (e.g. Jophda's prior post, many MMP posts) - 5 YEAR chart irrelevant (IMO)

    I understand many here may well put (1) into a category of "Trust" and that may or may not have been broken. Trust and Trustworthy are not the same thing IMO. I think SEA mgmt is trustworthy. Have they performed poorly? Depends on measurement - and the 5 year chart is the guide - maybe its not so good in isolation. But in context a lot better than SSN, AOK, RFE, AZZ, MAD/FDM, AKK/FPL all of whom are "shalers" in the USA market, some no longer with us, others hanging by a thread with far worse shareholder value destruction. Are those mgmts even "trustworthy"?

    I'm not saying that its OK to be just a bit better than the worst performers. One difference with SEA (and it was similar to what LONE did) is recognize that they would fail without transforming the company. And they did that with the PXD acreage acquisition. That was no small feat and (IMO) they are making that work which is my point (2) above and they are managing to point (3).

    We all choose to manage risk in our own way. In this instance, for me, that constantly reproduced 5 yr chart = "no useful".
 
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