MMI 6.82% 2.4¢ metro mining limited

JP last time I looked the day rate for Capes was around 17k a...

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    JP

    last time I looked the day rate for Capes was around 17k a day or 10c a ton.So 20 delay days beyond that expected is just $2 cost a ton.
    Shipping Costs seem to have reduced with IO capes from the Pilbara charging now over $8 a ton.
    My guess is the bridging facility is tied to whether or not the last Cape is filled or not and sent away empty.
    Around $US8.8m value at $52 a ton.

    I also suspect site manning has been focused around getting more locals and offering them year round employment to reduce fly in fly out costs.
    Enabling production when weather suits at reduced rates,over the wet season if weather allows,rehabing site when it doesn't and maybe allowing port stocks to rise,to be ready the moment weather improves enough to order a Cape in.
    Consequently I expect a shorter overall downtime from the wet season and an earlier restart after than normal.
    Bigger boats mean greater weather resilience in rougher seas,or to put it bluntly the ability to load Capes when you couldn't load smaller vessels.

    There has also been trouble in the U.S. with Guinee fine bauxite bought in for cement shifting in transit in June.Its rating has been changed which puts it in a dangerous cargo category,I believe.
    China's probably had similar issues,with longer shipping distances.
    The problem highlighted was there are no labs to test for moisture content in Guinee before a boat leaves and the standard bucket test doesn't work for fine bauxite.
    I have been wondering for some time if some of the boat delays relate to boats maybe sitting partly filled with hatches open during dry hot days to reduce moisture content.,while other boats or holds are then filled.

    The Indonesian ban on Bauxite exports could to be imposed this year as originally planned,rather than delayed to 2023 as mooted last year.

    Such are my thoughts and why I think we haven't seen the true value of the new MMI management in action.
    Next year should be a bumper season if it starts early,some competitors drop out of the market and with the ability to ship more cheaper with Capes into a growing market.
    Add an extra loading barge before June should cover loading risk and issues.
    TSA only paid 80% of the cost of the barge,I assume MMI paid the rest,i.e.$4m
    Maybe this last Cape is to make sure they have enough to put in for finance of the next loading barge.
    Failing that the bridging loan if required?

    Regards

 
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