BFG 1.49% $1.36 bell financial group limited

@TarvoldYes when I was saying h2 is historically stronger, it...

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    @Tarvold
    Yes when I was saying h2 is historically stronger, it kinda goes without saying that if markets crash they won’t hve a stronger h2.

    thats why I also cautioned re the outlook for h2 with the caveats:
    ”...due to the nature of financial markets”

    and in the previous post

    ”all other things being equal”

    both alluding to the elevated risks in Australian equity markets.

    For whom it may interest, aside from bfg, I’m underweight Australian banks, Australian financials and equities in general.

    im overweight:
    - cash (a little, but not too much)
    - international and Australian corporate and govt fixed income with a short to medium duration ie pmf02 mfund and vacf etf (heavily overweight here because I need to pull this chunk of money ie 50% of my portfolio in 1-2 years to buy a house so want to preserve capital as well as get modest returns above cash); this has had nice capital appreciation of around 2% in recent months as well as yielding 5% and is defensive)
    - Asian equities, which I have been overweight to nice effect since 2016 and have been good to accumulate over the past year at their depressed valuations due to trade war fears
    - globally facing Australian world leading companies eg bhp, Appen, afterpay, webjet, Macquarie, csl, northern star
    - lithium (this has been rubbish but I’m mostly only just in the red and so happy playing the patience game here and accumulating some extra now at the 52wk lows whilst sentiment is in despair mode and giving it a 2-3 yr horizon)
    - the rest is split between global etfs (Ndq nasdaq, Mge Magellan, pixx platinum global, wgb wam global, ASIA Asia tech tigers) and a little in WLE ie wam Australian leaders.
    I’m heavily exposed to global high growth through my industry super fund.

    so in conclusion generally I’m underweight (1) equities and (2) Australia because I think the downside outweighs the upside at this moment in time for both.
    im also completely out of the property market having sold my two properties around 1.5 yrs ago and waiting patiently for the bottom to buy back in.

    many are calling the bottom of the property market due to the coalition election victory, negligible tax cuts and a tiny interest rate cut, but personally I’m not rushing in because i think the economy is still slowing due to (1) incredibly high household debt choking consumer spending (2) a decade of sluggish wage growth thus exacerbating the debt problem and (3) lack of short term drivers due to marked slowing in construction which is a big chunk of the cyclical economy and feeds into everything else, poor consumer confidence (as evidenced by the nab business survey today) and anaemic global growth to drive the external demand outlook for exports.

    so I ain’t rushing back into property right now, prices are still very high in blue chip metropolitan areas and it seems akin to trying to catch a falling knife in the share market when you buy in just because it’s dropped 15% even though the fundamentals are still ugly...

    i would rather wait wait and see if things turn very ugly and buy then, otherwise pay a little extra in 12 months as I don’t see the property market rebounding strongly upwards from here.

    anyway, just my rambling two cents on the state of the investing world. Sorry not very bfg relevant, but every investment is all sort of connected as it’s a game of opportunity cost and risk reward, and bfg is a very cyclically exposed company so I agree with those above that if the economy tanks and market crashes this would take a huge hit. If in doubt, look back at what happened to the bfg share price shortly after their ipo just before the gfc hit 10+ Years ago.... nasty.
 
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