SXY 0.00% $4.60 senex energy limited

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder from MUFG, page-40

  1. 1,464 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 538
    While this thread has been interesting to read, and also interesting to see both sides in action supporting it's purposes... I think we just need to take a step back, a deep breath, and understand that over the medium to long term IF SXY are to deliver their $100M EBITDA and $70M FCF, than there will be less speculation in it's share price, and a share price largely underpinned by the company profit and distributions to holders...

    Let's not forget that SXY hasn't made a cent in the last 7 years, all earnings have been pushed into exploration and appraisal, building the gas business... Sure it is very promising and IMO the SXY long term strategy has played out almost perfectly, but the SP action has largely been driven by pure speculation... Once they can be underpinned with real FCF and real distributions the speculating will ease off.

    @Gwaihir all good comments, apart from the SXY would be at $1.20 if not for shorters, at $1.20 SP this is a market cap of $1.8B for a company with future FCF earning projections of $70M FCF - this would put them at a P/FCF ratio of >25... I don't disagree long term the SP could reach this level, but no institutional investor would be willing to pay $1.8B for SXY. Keep in mind a solid company like WPL right now $21B market cap (pre covid $33B) with a rearward looking FCF of $2B - so roughly 10 times FCF (16.5 pre-covid) - these are more the metric ratio's for consideration once SXY matures into strong stable company...

 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SXY (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.