Analytical Wizard Required

  1. 435 Posts.
    The following is a suggestion which may help all on this forum.

    Could somebody who has access to complete historical data for (say) the All Ordinaries index, analyse the data to determine the following:

    Based on the amount the index has risen or fallen in the preceeding 1, 2, 3 ... 10 days, what is the probabilty that the market will rise on the next day.

    You would need to break the rises over the period into percentage breaks 0 - 10 points, 11 - 20 points, etc., or maybe percentage changes.

    Perhaps you could work out the probabilty of a rise occurring on any given day, based on the number of preceeding consecutive rising days. For example, if the market rose on each of the preceeding three days, what is the chance of the rise continuing.

    The results could make interesting reading.

    The real reason for requesting this is to hopefully put an end to the continual predictions from so-called experts who think they can predict what happens tomorrow, and the continual lamb-basting of the so-called experts when they turn out to be wrong.

    We may find out that if the market falls for five consequtive days, then the probabilty of it falling on the sixth day is 90 percent. We may also find that over a long period, the probabilty of the market rising on any day is 70 percent, and it doesn't matter what happened on the previous day, the probabilty is still 70 percent.

    I for one would be interested in seeing the results.

    I would also be interested in being involved in a forum where the participants provide researched information suitable for constructive discussion, rather than chest-beating predictions and criticism of other people.
 
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