SYT 0.00% 0.1¢ syntonic limited

Analysis Of the Numbers

  1. 5,038 Posts.
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    I'll start by saying this is only a simplified interpretation of what we know. It's quite likely that instead of the kind of smoothing way I've calculated the monthly QAU numbers, the actual reality is one where there is a lot more spikes & trough's even from one month to the next.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 10 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14
    1   Cash Revenue Global QAU Penetration Gain (M) Daily $ Active calc  
    2   A$M A$M Install (M) Rate Q on Q Increase per user Users checks  
    3 Sept     20                
    4 Dec     25.3                
    5 Mar     31.7                
    6                        
    7 Apr     34.1           0.400   1.173%
    8 May     36.6 Est           0.750   2.049%
    9 June $ 0.659 $  0.399 39.7 2.032 5.118%     0.1964 0.882   2.222%
    10 July                 1.194    
    11 Aug                 1.350   0.675
    12 Sept $ 0.594 $   0.988   4.149   2.117 0.0230 0.2381 1.605   1.605
    13 Oct                 2.200   2.2
    14 15th Nov       5.960   1.811 0.0394     5.98 1.5
    15 Nov           1.513 0.0329   3.000    
    16 Dec $   1.120 $   1.875   7.473   3.324 0.0361 0.2509 2.273   1.493
    17 Jan                 2.200    
    18 Feb                 2.497    
    19 Mar $   0.882 $   1.760   7.497       0.2348 2.800    
    20 Apr                 3.000    
    21 31st May       9.115   1.618 0.0265 2.1398 3.315    
    22 June       10.000   2.503 0.0275 2.3476 3.685    
    23                 2.5090      
    The June 2018 Cash receipt number is in red because it included money from a previous quarter.
    The numbers in Yellow are estimates & we'll come to them later.
    The ones in Blue are calculation totals to check against actuals.
    All the numbers in the first 4 column's come from Syntonic announcements (except the 20M in red which is an estimate from a graph & the 10M in yellow which is a future estimate).

    Lets start by looking at the Sept 2018 data, the 2.117M number is the increase from the June 2018 QAU number.

    The 0.0230 number is the average increase (2.117M divided by the days in the quarter [91]) so we were adding roughly 23,000 user activations daily.

    The 0.2381 number is the average revenue amount Syntonic were receiving per active user ( A$0.988M divided by 4.149 QAU)

    The 1.605M number is my calculation of how many activations actually occurred in a particular month rather than the quarterly number. As I've said already I've gone for as smooth number flow.

    The zero in the following column is proof (to myself) that I've accounted for the quarterly figure in the breakdown ie July - Sept 1.194+1.350+1.605 = 4.149

    The repeated 1.605M number is part of me doing another check, as you'll know the company published a QAU number on  21st November 2018, giving the QAU as at 15th November. So for ease I've halved both calculated numbers for the month's of Aug & Nov and added them to the Sept & Oct ones & that comes to the 5.98M number (in blue) which is very close to the actual number of 5.96M.

    The 1.493M number in blue (dec row) is me doing yet another calculation to show the validity of these monthly numbers. This is arrived at by adding the Dec estimate of 2.273M + half the Nov one [to cover the first 15 days] of 3M ie +1.5M less the Sept number (-1.605) less half the Aug number (-0.675). Which is pretty close to the actual gain of 1.513M that occurred between the 15th Nov & the 31st Dec numbers.

    Now I know taking the revenue per quarter number and simply dividing it by the QAU number doesn't give a totally accurate revenue per user number (because the revenue number also contains service rev & maintenance rev but hopefully these are pretty consistent Q on Q ) but it should certainly be in the ballpark. Hence the consistency from Sept to Mar of 0.23x to 0.25 in those numbers.

    If you apply the Mar rate to the May QAU number and assume no growth to it (unlikely) then revenue for the June quarter will come in at around A$2.1398M. If on the other hand you assume growth continues at the same rate as the last 2 months then the QAU rises to 10M and that would mean revenue of around A$2.3476M. If you apply the slightly higher Dec rate instead then your looking at revenue of around A$2.509M for the quarter.

    Finally I want to talk about the penetration rate, June is the only reference point we have. We know the install base number for that date & the QAU number at the same time. For ease I've just divided one by the other.

    What I could do to be much more accurate is to divide the monthly QAU number by the installed base number for that month. Yes the percentage is very small (see 1.173% 2.049% & 2.222%) but actually they were growing which was a real positive because it means more & more of the userbase were using it and not just a factor of the growth in installs.

    LOTM
    Last edited by Last of the Mohicans: 15/06/19
 
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