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after you read this you will want to keep fms

  1. sus
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    China: Can the Party Really Be Over?
    By Stephen Clayson
    22 Oct 2008 at 10:51 AM GMT-04:00

    The doom-and-gloom merchants have now moved on to China, which this week announced third quarter economic growth of 9 per cent. In these times of financial panic, we seem to have lost sight of just how impressive that number is.

    LONDON ( -- Although this is the first time in several years that Chinese economic growth has hit single rather than double digits, 9% growth is still enviable, especially considering the turbulent global economic environment. The third quarter Chinese economic picture may have been muddied somewhat by the disruption and dislocation entailed by the Beijing Olympics, but it would be a miracle if China had avoided any negative spill over from the financial dramas unfolding in the West.
    Nevertheless it is apposite to recall that until recently, the Chinese were actually trying to prevent their economy overheating by raising interest rates and reining in bank lending. That should be of great comfort, because it means that now that ill winds are blowing through the world economy the Chinese authorities can reverse those tightening steps in order to keep their economic juggernaut rolling. And that is pretty fortunate, as China is now the major market for much of the world. For example, China is the biggest export market for South Korea, which is something of an economic powerhouse in its own right.

    Reports of factories closing in China are treated by some commentators as dire indicators of an impending economic collapse. It is conveniently forgotten that in a healthy economy, businesses fail and new ones spring up every day.

    It was always unreasonable to expect the Chinese economy to have genuinely decoupled from the rest of the world. Whatever the strength of domestic demand, China is still a huge exporter, and the financial crisis presently tearing through in its major export markets is of real concern. China’s net exports contributed 1.2 percentage points to its gross domestic product growth in the first nine months of this year, down from 2.4 percentage points in the same period last year. But the bottom line is that the Chinese economy is managing 9% growth in spite of this, helped by strong retail sales.

    The Chinese financial system has proven to be well insulated from the upheavals being experienced elsewhere. As a result, and unlike in the West, we haven’t seen any of the big names of China’s banking system failing.

    Chinese stock markets have fallen substantially, but that the breakneck gains previously being enjoyed were unsustainable should surprise no one. It is also important to remember that the health of the Chinese stock market is less correlated to that of the overall economy than is the case in the Western world.

    Likewise, falling property prices do not have the same implications for the wider economy as in the West. Nor does a culture of consumer debt exist in China the way that it does in Western countries such as the U.K. and U.S., where the reduced availability of that debt is now wreaking economic havoc.

    It may be that in China, the doom-and-gloom merchants have met their match.
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