Couple of days back I had written about a technical bounce in...

Couple of days back I had written about a technical bounce in the sector. The situation has changed, hence this post.
.
My theory was based on technical play. CCJ did get a small bounce and gained around 5% on Tuesday. But Spot fell. More importantly, its no longer a technical play in short-term, not exactly.
.
The Kazak news has had a adverse sentimental reaction to the market. We are seeing that in play, including big drops in U stocks and Spot price. So that has to be factored now.
.
The game has changed now. So that analysis needs to be re-visited taking into consideration of what has changed. Its like Australia was going to play against Zimbabwe in cricket, suddenly the opposition changes to England, so old analysis around the match has to reflect that.
.
Big drops happening. Are we back on gloomy days? There may still bel hope. On the weekend report, I had written 2 numbers for CCJ - 115/116, but more importantly - 110. I had written as long as CCJ holds 110, it can still be positive. The 110 level is around 20% drop from CCJ's recent high. Yesterday CCJ reached 110, but held. So technically it is playing that number which I had written.
.
Question is - will CCJ hold 110? Will drops in Spot stop happening? Sentiment is a big thing in stocks, and all the more important in U sector. So we have to absorb the effect of that. But many times, these events create a big jump or a big fall, and then market stabilises. The big fall has happened. CCJ dropped nearly 10% yesterday. Spot has fallen around 10%. Most ASX U stocks were getting close to 10% drop today. Many stocks have dropped or touched over 20% drop from their highs, even Spot close to 15%. Already big drops, so will U sector stabilise now? At this stage odds are even. Key numbers have to hold. CCJ has to hold 110. Spot somehow has to come back over 90, or at least stop the decline. Then we will see some positivity.
.
Also, on the weekend report, I had written what happened in January 2024. Spot reached 106. All U stocks made big jumps based on that. After that Spot started decreasing, eventually reaching early 60s. All stocks gave up all their gains in this process. January 2026 again Spot reached 100. And next few days we are seeing history repeat. Spot falling. All U stocks falling. Same as what happened 2 years back. We don't want that. Hopefully macro is much stronger now that it may not happen, but not to be ruled out.
.
Tonight is crucial. Has the Kazak news been absorbed by market and its affect complete, in sense Spot has fallen and U stocks have fallen enough for the news?. Is this it or we have some more to go? If CCJ somehow holds 110, even if red, I feel we will be nearly neutral tomorrow. Spot too has to arrest the drop. Otherwise we could see further decline before we reverse. Any green tonight in CCJ/Spot will definetly stop our red for tomorrow. The green might depend on the quantum. But as I said, odds are even at this stage, lets hope it plays our way. All the best.