ABC vote compas predicts easy LNP win

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    Queensland election 2015: LNP to retain government, ABC Vote Compass survey suggests

    By Melanie Stott
    Updated 50 minutes agoFri 30 Jan 2015, 5:37pm

    Map: QLD
    The LNP will retain power in the Queensland election on Saturday, the results of the ABC's Vote Compass survey suggest.
    However, the ALP stands to regain plenty of lost ground, with respondents believing Labor will win 35 seats out of 89.
    If survey respondents are right, Labor's representation in the Parliament could be boosted by up to 400 per cent because Labor currently holds just nine seats.
    The results are not an indication of who survey respondents intend to vote for; rather they reflect respondents' beliefs about who will win their local seat.
    How likely do you think it is for each of the parties to win in your electorate?
    Average of all respondents
    Average of all respondents
    Potential seats won, based on responses
    LNP 52

    Labor 35

    KAP 2

    This data is based on Australians' responses to ABC's Vote Compass.

    The same Vote Compass result in last year's Victorian election called the final result accurately except for two seats.
    Different electorates have various levels of confidence in their expectation, and 12 of the 25 electorates with the lowest levels of confidence were expected to be Labor wins.
    In the key seat of Ashgrove, Vote Compass respondents say Campbell Newman will win, although it is a close call; survey respondents were not confident they were right.
    "Voters think that Campbell Newman will win, but it's by a particularly low confidence measure," Vote Compass creator Cliff van der Linden said.
    "It's a very tight race, basically."
    The findings are based on an effective sample size of 83,422 respondents to Vote Compass between January 13 and January 28, 2015.

    Dave R.
 
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