EM1 36.4% 13.5¢ emerge gaming limited

a word about market depth

  1. 1,689 Posts.
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    In all the years I've been watching GIP shares and options on the ASX, the price has always rebounded, very soon after there have been no buyers in the market depth. It's close to the best bull market indicator I know of for the stock. We aren't quite there yet, but it's close.

    Some may argue that things are different this time and they may be right (although no one has ever provided verifiable evidence after all these years), but GIP has never been in a much better position business wise on the basis of all publicly available evidence. This includes costs, contracts, mining stakes, prospective metal prices, forecast supply availability and ticking BFS etc boxes.

    Some will be sick with fear at the moment, including bankers and the like no doubt. The reverse applies at market tops. Warren Buffett pretty much ignores all that and so am I until, as has been the case for years for this exercise, there is verifiable business evidence I should change my position.

    To the best of my knowledge, Talison (the bankrupted SGW) is not a going concern unless it can pull a rabbit out of a hat with its customers by around Christmas (although a major recession and guaranteed current prices for tantalum could perhaps keep its costs down enough (oil, labour, A$ etc)). Greenbushes main tantalum deposits are under water and Wodgina has declining grades and a somewhat limited life without further breakthroughs. No other legal supplier has proven they can step up to the plate in a significant way for the long term except GIP and customers are increasingly reluctant to rely on single suppliers after the SGW failure experience. Meanwhile, demand for tantalum in particular continues to increase steadily and legal supply continues to be increasingly restricted. As for the illegal stuff, the war has recently taken a turn for the worse.
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