1. Most Discussed
  2. Gainers & Losers

a quick look at activity in the futures market wit

  1. gaweb

    2,154 Posts.

    I used to post 'trading ideas' about 12 months ago that highlighted specific trading opportunities in the speccy and derivative sectors implementing simple technical analysis.

    I am going to do it a little different now, based on my weekend research using the same principles in the trading ideas posts. Sure, some of you will think I am trying to be another RR - but hey if I can't clear my thoughts and vent my spleen here, then where can I ? :-)

    I'm going to look at indices x2, commodities x2, bonds & a currency . No Stocks :-)

    Whilst explaining a point of view with charts - please remember that I am not going to go in great detail, as I will attempt to keep it short and sweeeeet, and I am no CTA.

    The CRB Index Weekly chart is trading at new highs. What is so interesting about this chart, is during the peak of the tech boom the CRB index actually picked up on the high inflation rate and thus also fell according to monetary easing. Well, who is to say we have dis-inflation when CRB has been a solid indicator for inflation for the past 10 or so years ?


    The S&P 500 Index has almost double topped as evident by the 950 resistance which has given two bonafide short signals thus far. I firmly believe the S&P will range between 800 and 950 for a long time as some technology components in the SPX have limited downside. So a loong tight range is highly possible. The MACD is signaling that bears are and will have a good time.


    Gold - As much as it displeases me, spot gold is overbought with significant resistance at $338/oz created during the 1999 spike high. This coupled with the fact, there is a RSI negative divergence taking place on the weekly chart which needs to be monitored closely imo. It is negatively diverging near critical resistance. The divergence will be overcomed only if spot gold trades above $350/oz imo - take your bets, my bet is up :-)


    Wheat - It has had a stellar run, though it is the first commodity to break critical supports and a sign of an imminent breather in the agricultutal commodities market. Wheat is looking bearish as it broke through two critical support levels in conjunction with the USDA releasing a report Thursday early morning aussie time that export sales, net sales of US wheat will be well below the low end of trade expectations. However, three hours after the USDA report the EU awarded more than 500k tonnes of wheat for export in part of its subsidy program. Currently wheat futures is holding its 50% retracement with stochastics very oversold- will it sink or swim ? Fun and games being played out in the agriculutre futures market as the cold winter in the US approaches.


    Bonds- bonds are overbought in a wedged body, technically speaking ! The lower highs worries me, Friday was only the second time in three months there is an imminent capital outflow from bonds. Where is the money going to go? equities ? Or are volumes drying up in the equity and debt markets ? Hmmm bonds used to be the home for so -called safe haven money.. but now the liquidity is drying up what else is considered as a safe haven and in a strong uptrend ? However, keep in mind that Aussie bonds surged on Friday due to geopolitical factors, US bonds fell.


    AUD - made a new five week high on Friday with the MACD x-over to the bullish side. A strategist I correspond with indicates the AUD is looking very sound technically but the fundamental story does not appear as solid as the drought has knocked around a percentage point off annual growth in Australia this year. However the stronger than forecasted local employment figures supported the AUD and pushing it higher. CMC'ers Buy the dips!!!


    It's time for my ritual Sunday drinking spree, Cheers

Before making any financial decisions based on what you read, always consult an advisor or expert.

The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd. Any information posted on the website has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and as such, you should before acting on the information or advice, consider the appropriateness of the information or advice in relation to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please be aware that any information posted on this site should not be considered to be financial product advice.

From time to time comments aimed at manipulating other investors may appear on these forums. Posters may post overly optimistic or pessimistic comments on particular stocks, in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for management to moderate all posts so some misleading and inaccurate posts may still appear on these forums. If you do have serious concerns with a post or posts you should report a Terms of Use Violation (TOU) on the link above. Unless specifically stated persons posting on this site are NOT investment advisors and do NOT hold the necessary licence, or have any formal training, to give investment advice.


Thank you for visiting HotCopper

We have detected that you are running ad blocking software.

HotCopper relies on revenue generated from advertisers. Kindly disable your ad blocking software to return to the HotCopper website.

I understand, I have disabled my ad blocker. Let me in!

Need help? Click here for support.