a poll to warm the liberals hearts

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    ABC Online...
    A new poll, taken in the week before yesterday's release of the climate plan, has the Government losing an election in a landslide and for the first time has Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

    The latest Essential Report shows that on first preferences the Coalition leads Labor 50 per cent to 30 per cent and after preferences the Opposition leads by a massive 57 to 43.

    Essential's pollster Andrew Bunn says if an election were held now it would be "getting on to the proportion of the New South Wales State election" which was a massacre for the Labor government.

    Mr Abbott leads Prime Minister Julia Gillard by 39 to 37 per cent - a narrow lead, but a year ago Ms Gillard was in front 53 per cent to 26 per cent.

    "This is the first time we've had him ahead and the approval ratings for Ms Gillard have been rapidly reducing over the last couple of months," Mr Bunn told ABC News Online.

    "The major movement started in both voting intention and approval from the announcement in February of the carbon pricing. The two party preferred was neck-and-neck in February and it's now 57-43."

    Ms Gillard has slipped even further in outright approval, with only 29 per cent of people approving of the job she is doing as Prime Minister and 62 per cent disapproving.

    But Mr Abbott's approval rating is not in positive territory either - 39 per cent of those polled approve of the job he is doing as Opposition Leader and 49 per cent disapprove.

    Neither leader rates well in the eyes of the public.

    Essential's last poll showed former prime minister Kevin Rudd is more popular than Ms Gillard and former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is more favoured than Mr Abbott.

    Mr Bunn says it is not too late for Ms Gillard to rekindle her electoral chances because former prime minister John Howard came back from a similar position.

    "What's going to be critical is the response over the next few months on the response to the carbon pricing scheme," he said.

    The poll also shows the lowest approval for a carbon price since Essential started polling in March - 53 per cent against and 35 per cent in favour.

    The results were published as Ms Gillard began her campaign to sell the climate change plan.

    "I've got a lot of explaining to do and I'm going to keep explaining," she said after visiting a family in western Sydney.

    "Yesterday when we launched the package I wanted to explain the way it worked to Australians and I'm doing that today and I'll be doing that for many days, many weeks, many months ahead."

    At the same time, Mr Abbott was at a coal mine in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales campaigning just as vigorously against the plan.

    He said he would not support the Government's $1.3 billion compensation package for the coal industry - nor the $300 million assistance package for steel.

    "The best form of compensation for the coal industry is not to have a carbon tax in the first place," Mr Abbott said.

    "We are not going to make it easier for the Government and its toxic tax. It's up to the Government to get this legislation through. We can't save the country from opposition," he said.

    However, the package appears likely to be passed anyway and Mr Abbott is risking political pain by opposing assistance measures to industry and households.
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    IMO this poll marks the bottom for the government and the top for the opposition. From here on the polls will start moving in the opposite direction. It will be interesting to see what polling a few weeks from now shows.
    Dave R.
 
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