a few thoughts on the banks

  1. 23 Posts.
    My thoughts on the banks.

    ANZ has pulled back about 50% from its march to June rally. But its sitting below the 200ma, which is not great.

    NAB is similar, but I can’t see it falling too much further. Its dividend yield should hold it up.

    CBA was in a tight range until while the market waited for its dividend. It has since fallen off. If it goes the way of ANZ & NAB with a 50% pullback from this years rally, it could come back to the high 26’s. That’s not out of the question because it consolidated in a range from the high26s to high27s for a while April through May.

    WBC medium term looks the best of the lot, if only because its 200ma is pointing up. Short term I have no idea…come to think of it long term I have no idea either.

    I hold CBA so I would hate to see it fall much further, but I would not rule it out. 27.50 or thereabouts seems likely.

    ANZ & CBA have pretty ugly H&S patterns, but they fail as often as not so I don’t give that much credence.

    If was thinking of a trade, I would be tempted by NAB. The $31 line through the chart looks like an ok support area. Maybe I would write some puts, say October $29.50, or alternatively buy some calls. One reason this could be an ok thing to do is that the general market has yet to pullback & when it does, I think the banks will hold up, given that they have fallen already.

    But like I said, I have no idea what will happen.

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