CT1 5.56% 1.9¢ constellation technologies limited

a copy of a good post on another forum

  1. ds
    7,131 Posts.
    Very difficult proposition. I'll try and build my thinking for you.


    We have a situation where the US is about to slingshot out of the poorest excuse for a recession I've ever seen - 1 quarter of negative growth against headwinds not seen since the 1930's (eg 9/11 , SARS , tech wreck , China exporting deflation etc). Add to that the fact that Japan is emerging from a decade of contraction and speeding up as I write. Australia has been travelling at breakneck spped despite a drought and currency appreciation and global drag. Summary - think of Ed Harris in the movie Apollo 13 - "we're going to send you round the other side of the Moon and use its gravity to slingshot you back to earth" - that's what Greenspan and Bush have done - 1% rates and spend, spend, spend.
    Syncronised global growth.

    Biotech - first of all they were all undervalued anyway - some by half, some a quarter etc etc - the point being is that we all thing a stock doubling is some big deal but the reality is most are just getting back to fair value (esp real earners like AGX). Add to that a comparison of mine - when it comes to technology I will pay about $80 for a computer game, about $300 for a DVD or video or playstation player and a couple of grand for a computer. When it comes to you providing me with a drug or a test that will save my six year old's life - I will give you everything I have - and I'll vote for govts that provide it to me free. Summary - margin.

    Now for Agenix - I don't know where to start - I have put so many of my thoughts down here I guess new people will have to read back but the main summary for you all is this - I am very bullish, I have an enourmous amount invested (at least to me its enormous) I have been to the factory, I have met management, I have consulted specialists, I have researched the patent applications, I have consulted fund managers - you would think I would know about as much as there is to know about this company and yet prety much all their announcements have been positive surprises - even for me. I didn't expect the CBA to offer 20m loans - confirms their earnings capacity and balance sheet strength, I didn't expect Abbott to do a licencing agreement (a tie up with Abbott should not be underestimated in my book), I did not expect they would have 9.5m cash as at 30/6, etc etc

    Things to wacth for are still a distribution agreement in the US, Patent rulings, results and the freak one would be a pulmonary embolism in the current trials. As I have stated many times - I don't even know if this is possible - I don't know if they are imaging for them or not - my point is simply this - if they find one it is worth at least $1 on the share price - I don't know how much the market will give it - I don't know how much it is really worth - I do know that every doctorr I have spoken to says they could make great money globally out of DVT but if they can pick up a PE - now thats magic. As I have said before - my analysis on DVT alone gets $6-$24 depending on assumptions. This does not include PE. One of the assumptions was getting 10% of the DVT market - if it becomes a standard test for DVT and PE I have no idea how mauch it could be worth but I think they could reach 30-50% of the market and you can do the maths. As you can see the numbers get silly - this is why I won't put a sell level on it.

    If you gave me $1.30 today with zero new information I would sell about 5-10% of my holding (capital management). There has been an awesome amount of selling from long term holders I think as it has gone up and I really feel sorry for them as they have kept the faith so long.

    So - to put a number on POP - I guess I am thinking 5-10c at a time for the small pop's but the big one I believe will be more like 30c-$1 over a few days - then it joins the market for fund managers to buy into (mkt cap of about 200m) and then it keeps a bid tone for a long time.

    As an aside - I can't begin to tell you how good the technical picture is on it.

    Happy trading and snap . . . crackle . . . .
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