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MOY 19.0¢

70k gold producer - new CEO - mcap 8m - turning point - very cheap!

  1. Mikrokosmos

    2,263 Posts.
    MOY - Gold Producer - 70k output in 2015 (imo)
    Current mcap 8m AUD - AISC 2014 was 1295 AUD

    Hi guys,
    searching for gold and silver pearls in a forthcoming raise of gold prices i have been looking for mcap smashed down companies.
    And MOY is the most promising value change option on ASX imo.
    Sure, they did worse in the last decade, and the fallen goldprice in the last two years has collapsed the shareprice extremely bad.
    MOY was one of the rare companies, they successfully progressed from an explorer company to a producer company.
    I had a look at all the announcements from the explorer time until they produced their first gold bar.
    They delivered every promise, mostly over delivered.
    So there must be a strong team, that built up a company from an explorer to a gold producer, as you know, that 99,9% of explorers wont never be a producer.
    As a producer they made many errors unfortunately, like it seems.

    Why MOY is on a turning point now?

    After the fallen goldprice, fallen from alltime high in August 2011 with 1912 USD per ounce to 1140 USD in October 2014, the goldprice relaxed well to currently 1280 USD per ounce. With all the moneyprinting central banks, and many other factors, we have a good outsight for further raising prices of gold.
    This is the most important base for a successfull gold producer.
    One of the biggest cost driver for running a gold company, OIL, is very chaep currently.
    This will help to handle the AISC for MOY very well.
    Another positive factor is the strong USD.
    1 ounce gold in AUD is at 1650 currently.
    MOYs AISC from 2014 was 1295 AUD, last quarter 1479 AUD what was restructuring based higher.
    September 2014 qauarter AISC has been 1197 AUD.
    The new successful and expierienced CEO Glenn Dovaston gives an outlook for the future in the last quarterly...

    The benefits of ongoing operational improvements (to flow through early in 2015) and which will reduce
    costs, are a result of the following: negotiation of a new haulage contract with 40% lower rates than
    previously incurred; reduced mining fleet from 4 to 3 operating shifts; a contract extension with
    Western Plant Hire incorporating a $1.2 M saving; reducing the organisation by 17 personnel; and
    changing fly‐in / fly‐out configurations.

    Forward Guidance
    Production guidance for the March quarter 2015 is expected to be between 16,000 to 18,000 ounces

    Full year 2015 production guidance will be released in the first quarter 2015 after review of the Life
    of Mine Plan, (to focus on optimising grade and throughput), which in conjunction with the cost
    reduction initiatives will allow further material debt reduction during 2015.

    As a result, the Company is reviewing its Life of Mine Plan with a view to bringing forward development of its eastern satellite deposits, namely Bartons, All Nations, Shearers, Otways, Little Wonder and the CCJV deposits. These deposits will provide predominantly oxide feed to the mill for the next 2 years and will allow the Company to maintain a yearly production rate of between 75,000 to 80,000 ounces of fine gold. This will provide the Company time to determine the best (most economically viable) processing route to treat the Golden Eagle fresh material during subsequent years.

    So the chance for AISC in 2015 about 1200-1300 is realistic.
    At current levels, MOY would earn more than 30 million AUD (AISC 1200 AUD) and my worst case 17.5 mln AUD (AISC 1400 AUD) if not would be the hedged 73k ounces, which have to be delivered until June 2016.

    There is a good chance to further reduce/pay back debts and make MOY to one of the biggest winner on the ASX gold sector in the forthcomming two years, based on its currently incredible cheap mcap, if the new CEO could bring in his expierience and skills.

    At currently 8mln mcap, a good progressing workflow, a further raising gold price, MOY could be easily a tenbagger until end of 2016.

    MOYs mcap is cheaper than many gold explorers. They have a running mill, cost saving options and a new CEO with high reputation.

    Would like to discuss on chances, informations or issues, that you have in your mind about MOY.
    Good luck everybody.

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