BTA 0.00% 57.0¢ biota holdings limited

4th quarter

  1. 652 Posts.

    At May 2009 http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5405DB20090501 reports that Glaxo was set to produce 5 million treatment packs of Relenza a month within the next 12 to 14 weeks, equivalent to an annual run rate of 50-60 million.

    Andrew Witty at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1223672/GSK-earnings-boosted-flu-outbreak.html revealed Glaxo is 'in good shape' to meet orders for 440m worldwide, then at November 20, 2009, http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3655130, confirmed that GSK will sell 60 million packs of Relenza from Q4 of 2009 through 2010.

    The BTA annual report states GSK intends to increase Relenza production capacity to 190 million courses by the end of 2009.

    To me, 50M or more courses seems solid for the 4th qtr and that will justify a higher SP, equally interesting is the 190 million courses which could already be contracted.

    Considering cash position of 86 million when 20 million returned to investors earlier this month; who foresees a similar return of +20% from final 2010 results (plus cash reserves).
    ie. roughly 140M+50M*0.20=38M which would be 22c per share.
 
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