4 gold buffs - a must read

  1. 13,526 Posts.
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    May have been posted before however.............

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/murphy/2004/1208.html

    BOMBSHELL!
    World Gold Council's ETF Dumps 15 Tonnes of Bullion
    Right BEFORE Price Collapse
    by Bill Murphy, Chairman
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
    December 8, 2004

    Gold $436.80 down $14.70 – Silver $7.08 down 74 cents

    "Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
    when first we practice to deceive."
    – Sir Walter Scott

    GO GATA!

    If there ever was a sequence of events to prove GATA’s importance, it is what we are witnessing at the moment. Let’s get right to it! This email from a Café member corporate executive came to me early last evening:

    This smells to high heaven!

    StreetTRACKS inventory went down by 15 tons in a fairly even gold market. I would guess they used it to slow the gold rise!
    Bix


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    Bells, whistles, and alarms went off when I received that email. Not quite understanding exactly how this ETF works and where the ETF report came from, I circulated the email to colleagues to verify its veracity. Before I received responses, this Reuters gold report surfaced this morning:

    LONDON, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Gold slid sharply in Europe on Wednesday, losing more than $7 at one point, as investors bought the dollar and sold commodities into the year-end.

    Traders also noted a hefty drop overnight in the quantity of gold held in trust on the new U.S.-listed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), which did nothing to help sentiment.

    The U.S. ETF jumped from 103 to 88 tonnes overnight so somebody dumped a whole load yesterday and rather set the tone for today.


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    Further details surfaced from a fellow Café member:

    Bill, Thought you out to know that StreetTracks is showing re GLD a decrease of 15 tonnes in the Total Net Asset value tonnes in the Trust from Dec 6 to Dec 7 as of 4:15 P.M. Have no idea what it means, but thought you should know.

    http://streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php#2

    Total Net Asset Value Tonnes in the Trust as at 4.15 p.m. NYT
    Dec 6, 103.56 Dec 7, 88.02


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    From the World Gold Council’s own propaganda, this fund is supposed to "track" the gold price." So why did they sell 15% of their bullion in a quiet market? Another gold market coincidence? Whether a fluke or not, this screaming red flag re the WGC ETF corroborates GATA’s worst fears about this clandestine entity and more than fully validates our public airing of the subject.

    More, JUST IN, after the gold close: DJ Fall In StreetTRACKS' Stock Encouraged Gold Slide - Trade


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    Wed Dec 08 12:39:57 2004 EST

    LONDON (Dow Jones)--The 3.5% fall in the price of spot gold Wednesday may have been encouraged by the sale of 15% of the gold held by the StreetTRACKS exchange-traded fund, or ETF, analysts in London said.

    The total net asset value of gold in the trust stood at 88.02 metric tons Wednesday against 103.56 tons Tuesday.

    Gold fell to $436.90 a troy ounce at the London fix Wednesday afternoon against $451.80/oz Tuesday afternoon.

    While most participants agree the market was primed for a slide - in light of an overbought technical picture and a bounce for the dollar - they also believe the fall in tonnage in the StreetTRACKS trust was responsible for some of the selling.

    The fall in the StreetTRACKS tonnage highlights the expectation by holders of the shares that the share price and price of gold is set to fall, said an analyst.

    "It hasn't helped sentiment," said Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital.

    StreetTRACK gold shares were launched Nov. 18 on the New York Stock Exchange to track the price of gold. Each share represents one-tenth an ounce of gold.

    In the first week of trade to Nov. 26 the trust built up a total net asset value of just over 100 tons, but since then this remained virtually unchanged until the decline Tuesday.

    Over the same period the share price for the fund has also remained steady, closing Tuesday at $45.11 compared with the close on the first day of trade at $44.38. At 1626 GMT Wednesday the shares were trading at $43.62.

    "Gold was primed for a correction but it seems to me an interesting correlation that the StreetTRACKS tonnage fell at the same time," said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of GFMS Ltd.

    The StreetTRACKS Web site says the tonnage in the trust for Wednesday will be updated between 1615 and 1630 EST.

    -By David Elliott; Dow Jones Newswires; (4420) 7842 9411; [email protected]


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    A review of all of this ETF commotion:

    *The WGC ETF buys 100 tonnes of gold, yet it barely moves the market.

    *The gold price advances are capped each day to $2 and $3 at a pop for the most part.

    *During this time and especially this past week, gold in foreign currency terms loses ground with gold in euros falling from 344 to 335 and change.

    *This new buying seems to have little effect on the price of gold even though the international gold market is firm as can be to start with.

    *For many weeks GATA and the GATA ARMY raised concerns the new ETF entity has set itself up to be a tool for The Gold Cartel, or worse, an active ally of cabal forces.

    * *Fervent supporters of the new entity are vociferous about it being one of the most important positive gold events in 30 years.

    *GATA says it would love that to be the case; however, the way the World Gold Council structured the entity left too many questions unanswered, exposing vulnerability it could be used to hurt the gold price at strategic moments, not help it.

    *James Turk has queried publicly why the SEC approved this vehicle when it did without demanding the same safeguards it has required from other entities in the past. As Café members and the GATA camp know, James, a former Chase banker, is extremely thorough in his work. James’ suspicions have raised a brouhaha as a result of him publicly airing his valid concerns.

    *Now, last night we find out the WGC ETF dumps 15 tonnes of gold in a quiet market and then gold is slaughtered the next day.

    *This peculiar 15 tonne drop in the ETF’s TNAVT (Total Net Asset Value Tonnes) validates James Turk’s basic assertion that the WGC’s ETF assets have to be audited to have any credibility.

    You be the judge of what has occurred!

    Talk about an outrage! Thebulliondesk.com does not allow commentary by GATA and James Turk on its website, yet goes all out to attack us and then allows us to be criticized by detractors for what we have to say (which is not allowed to be aired to TheBullionDesk.com’s readership):

    http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/temp/AnOpenLettertoGATA.pdf

    In the meantime I don’t think I have seen TheBullionDesk’s Ross Norman editorialize more than a few times over the past years. Yet, he has done so twice in two days, both related to this WGC fund, James Turk and GATA. This is his latest:

    http://www.thebulliondesk.com/ReportItem.aspx?Code=collywog

    Clearly, he must have realized what a BOMBSHELL this 15 tonnes of selling by the WGC fund prior to the gold collapse is and how shady it appears to be. Was the gold even there in the first place? Did James Turk’s or GATA’s public queries panic the World Gold Council into making an adjustment of phantom inventory? This editorial by Norman is a preemptive effort to defuse the obvious and then blame the GATA camp for causing the selling.

    This guy must truly be a banana head as to his assertions the GATA camp caused the major selling. Ah, to have such power! I am long the market as are most of the GATA camp. It would be one thing if I was publicly predicting a massive correction (like almost everyone else). However, this is not the case. I have remained a lonely steadfast bull above $450. James Turk has been in the short-term bullish camp too. What TheBullionDesk has done here is both dishonorable and a disgrace. It is also another example of our lack of freedom of the press when it comes to gold and how corrupt the gold market really is.


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    A fellow Café member puts all of this in perspective:

    Bill:
    My understanding is that the GLD fund lost 15 tons of gold yesterday. It is looking more and more like GLD was created to further help in the management of the gold price. If the fund lost 15 tons of gold yesterday, it means that the stock was trading at a discount to the NAV of the fund. The fund was then forced to buyback the stock and sell the same amount of gold at the market. What we have here is an instrument that owns gold that can be forced to sell gold at the market anytime somebody (the powers that be) shorts or sells enough paper certificates to drive the stock price below the value of the gold in the fund. If the SEC is allowing naked shorting in this security, it makes it even easier to drive the value of the stock down to force the sale of the physical gold anytime they want. What a wonderful world. Jeff


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    By the way, I urge as much commentary to TheBullionDesk, financial press and authorities as possible. Please do so without using profanity. No reason for us to stoop to the level of the cabal and their allies.

    Regarding the day’s gold action: Gold began to sink AS SOON AS Comex closed yesterday, quickly dropping to $450. By the time I went to sleep gold was down $3/$4 dollar even though the dollar was up only slightly. The Gold Cartel’s orchestrated/blitzkrieg counter-attack had begun. When I woke up this morning, gold was already down $11. No $6 Rule on the downside.

    The Gold Cartel has been setting up this assault for weeks and now appears to have used the new Gold ETF as a tool for their planned mugging, as a way to flush out the specs. Heretofore the cash market was too strong and the dollar too weak to get the job done. One technical system after another is feeding on itself during this bloodbath, forcing longs to exit the market, for their money management rules if nothing else.

    With the gold open interest so high, moves like this can get very ugly in the short-term. The goal of The Gold Cartel is always to demoralize gold investors. This flagrant bombing could go a long way to accomplishing their goals, especially after brutalizing the gold shares the past month in anticipation of what was to come in the cash market.

    As far as I am concerned, I knew what The Gold Cartel wanted to do – no change in modus operandi was in evidence anywhere. However, I DID NOT think they were going to be able to pull off these sorts of shenanigans because the cash market has been so strong and everyone and their mother were short-term bearish. Just goes to show you how really difficult it is to fight the US Government and powerful Wall Street interests. However, it is critical to remind ourselves how far gold has come and where it is going. AND to keep in mind the bums are running out of physical to keep this up, which is why the price has risen $200 an ounce over a three year period.

    To get a handle on the big picture and to pick your spirits up as to why The Gold Cartel’s demise is not far off, please read Reg Howe’s brilliant new piece at:

    Déjà Vu: Central Banks at the Abyss
    http://www.goldensextant.com/SavingThemselves.html#anchor57474


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    While the specs were massive sellers today, the trade was a massive buyer. Not a sell ticket out there from the cartel and dealer camp. For example, JP Morgan Chase bought 3,000 lots in the early going. The gold open interest must have shrunk dramatically.

    Recently, I suggested that if The Gold Cartel did attack, $430 should hold, since gold broke out from that level. As it was a top for so long, this level now becomes an obvious support and buy point. Today’s low was $432.80. World buyers should be loading the boat anytime gold approaches anywhere near $430 in the days to come.

    The dollar finished at 81.93, up only .67. The euro only dropped .99 to 133.32. The pound only dropped 1.27 to 193.30. Gold’s move down was all out of proportion to the dollar’s minor correction. This is what happens when a bunch of crooks are running a market.

    Get this: Gold in euros fell to 326 today before closing around 328.

    Newer Café members might now get some idea where some of my rage comes from. Having traded commodities for some time, I know market action. It could not be more obvious how the cabal caps price advances and then, when they are ready, sets up the specs to be flushed out. This is not the way a free market works; it is the way a managed market works. The good news for us is they are running out of bullets to keep up this farce. It is ending even as they win the battle for $450. They are LOSING the war.

    Kudos to GATA’s Mike Bolser who has insisted this is what The Gold Cartel is up to. Now what? Mike, to his own admission, has been calling for this cabal onslaught since $419. Do those calling for a correction buy ahead of $430, or wait for gold to be trounced back to the $400 level? If gold takes out $430 for more than a day or two, I will have to run up my flag. Gold should not stay even at these levels for too much longer. Once the margin call selling is out of the way, we should fly to the upside. This is the shot The Gold Cartel has been waiting for to cover their latest short positions. They sure did enough of it today.


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    The following email was sent to us by Australia’s Nick Laird last evening. He saw this coming:

    Hi Bill
    I take about 10 snapshots of gold & silver charts twice a day & have done so for a year now.

    It's quite a handy archive of price action on a minute scale as I save tick charts (which like the one below show each price change as a tick) 5 min, 15 min, 1 hour & daily charts





    The action visible in these tick charts shows clear capping of the price. It doesn't happen often but that makes it all the more noticeable when they do do it. This action has been visible the last few days & generally you will only see this at market tops or important junctures when they want to effect the price & direction.

    It seems to me that they don't want this rally to have any more legs.

    This action is also visible in silver.

    Anyway here's a few charts from yesterday & today.
    Cheers Nick

    These two charts are on silver price suppression.






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    The John Brimelow Report
    Happy Indians; Unhappy ETF observers
    Wednesday, December 08, 2004

    Indian ex-duty premiums (for an explanation go to http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/IndianPremiums.htm):

    AM $9.63, PM $8.68, with world gold at $448.75 and $446.55. High: lavish for legal imports – despite an appreciable weakening of the rupee along with the other Asian currencies. With world gold now another $10 weaker, Indian importing will surge. It may be recalled that the Reuters article on India yesterday quoted a dealer saying:

    "…everyone is waiting for prices to soften around $440-445 an ounce to boost their stocks" and another:

    "Buyers are waiting on the sidelines for prices to come down. Right now, inventory is at zero levels," (JB emphasis)

    So activity should respond immediately.

    The gold price weakness gained momentum today during TOCOM hours. There was some Japanese liquidation. Volume rose 69% to the equivalent of 22,361 Comex, and open interest fell the equivalent of 1,313 Comex (having risen 313 Comex the day before). Mitsubishi implies the public reduced its long 7.1 tonnes (equal to 2,283 Comex contracts) World gold was $3.80 below NY at the close; the active contract was off only 4 yen, being cushioned somewhat by the decline of the yen. (In NY yesterday open interest actually rose 899 lots on 35,508 contracts; the previous day it had fallen 3,764 lots on volume of 40,367.)

    Following a day of quiet but relentless selling pressure on Comex yesterday, there was a notable intensification of selling activity on ACCESS last night. Total volume for the session of over 12,000 contracts must be close to a record, and more significantly an unusually high proportion of the previous day’s volume.

    Yesterday’s open interest behavior on a $2.20 down day suggests some short selling was involved: the enormous volume today (90,000 estimated by 1PM with very few switches) suggests a wash out.

    In the meantime the gold world is being enlivened by huge rows on the ETF, much exacerbated by the foolish attempt by the instrument’s sponsors to dodge debate - quite impossible in the era of the internet. While the custodial arrangements and the strange story of the duplicated gold bar serial numbers are important questions which need to be addressed, more significant from the standpoint of short run gold market analysis is the is the very odd behavior of the reported outstandings. As Barclays puts it this morning:

    "…the much awaited US gold ETF, StreetTRACKS, has reported a fall of 15.6 tonnes down to 88.0 tonnes - this followed a surprising week of no changes in the gold held in the trust despite large trading volumes being recorded."

    15.6 tonnes is 500,000 ozs, a very nice round number. The ETF is not at all showing the pattern of the Comex gold contract, where open interest should surely be analogous. Andy Smith has put out a weekly for Mitsui suggesting that market maker manipulation is the cause:

    "It doesn’t take even a cynical judge to suspect that this is not a miracle, but the market maker absorbing genuine mismatches in buy-sell orders and maintaining a still life picture of gold held for the public gallery."

    Further suspicions as to the integrity of the gold market are most unwelcome.

    JB


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    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

    The DOW (10,494 up 54) and DOG (2126, up 11) returned to their merry ways.

    Something is very wrong out there in US financial land. Look at the DEC bond, up 1 12/32 to 114 1/32.

    DEC Bond
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

    The dollar has barely corrected. The stock market is near its highs, as are the bonds, even though the dollar has been trashed??? Only gold, used as a barometer of financial stress by many, was decimated. The rigging of the US financial markets is going to end very badly and financially brutalize the average American.

    US economic news and input:

    10:32 API reports crude oil inventories +583K barrels
    Gasoline inventories +2.6M barrels, while distillate inventories (1.2M) barrels. After initial downtick, Jan. WTI crude is currently trading higher to $41.30, post data, ostensibly on the API distillate number.
    * * * * *
    10:30 DOE reports crude oil inventories +600K barrels vs. expectations (750K) barrels
    Gasoline inventories reported +2.4M barrels vs. consensus +1.875M barrels. Distillate inventories reported +1.4M barrels vs. consensus +1.5M barrels. January crude is trading lower in initial reaction to the data.
    * * * *


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    Here is a strange one:

    http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041208/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_cabinet
    Snow to Stay in Bush Cabinet for 2nd Term
    By SCOTT LINDLAW, Associated Press Writer

    WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) asked Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday to stay in his administration, and Snow agreed, keeping a key member of Bush's economic team in place.

    Snow walked to the White House to have lunch with other members of the team, and met with Bush, said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

    "The president is pleased Secretary Snow agreed to continue to serve," McClellan said.

    So much for hit the road Snow.


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    Extra
    Housing bubble is real, report says

    Bank predicts a 'hard landing' by mid-2005 and says prices are 'spectacularly and unrealistically high.' But the Fed remains unworried.

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P87483.asp


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    John Crudele of the New York Post is a first-rate journalist. Some excerpts from his column yesterday which reveals the depth of the "spin" coming out of Washington and Wall Street:

    JOBS-DATA DISTORTIONS FRUSTRATE EASY COMPARISONS
    By JOHN CRUDELE

    December 7, 2004 -- BACK in the 1970s, Western economists would chuckle at the way the Soviet Union compiled its economic statistics.

    Without fail, for instance, the Kremlin would announce record annual wheat crops even though there were reports nightly on TV about severe food shortages in that country.

    That was fraud.

    Now consider the U.S., circa 1990 through 2004. I picked those years for a reason ­ so you won't think either political party is beyond gilding the economy.

    There's no obvious fraud involved here…..

    But changes in the way Washington compiles economic statistics have certainly caused the figures to be misleading. They are numbers on steroids.

    At the very least today's official evaluations of the economy may not be comparable to those in the past, rendering useless the historical trends that economists like to follow.

    In fact, the chutzpah showed in some of these changes may be causing a disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy ­ gauged through things like consumer-confidence surveys ­ and what Washington says is happening.

    Even worse, by changing the way it compiles its statistics, Washington could be leading astray economic experts as well as policy makers at the Federal Reserve.

    This column, the second in a series about the new tricks of the economics trade, will continue to look at the sleight of hand used in the employment figures.

    Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 112,000 jobs were created in November. There's no arguing with the fact that 112,000 was a disappointing amount.

    It was far below the 200,000 jobs that the experts had been predicting, and was made worse by a large reduction in October's growth. The 112,000 new jobs aren't even enough to keep up with the increasing population.

    Worse, Washington could only come up with those 112,000 jobs by adding 54,000 positions it believes ­ but can't prove ­were created by newly formed companies….


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    Eric Hommelberg has done yeoman’s work of late. It is much appreciated by The Café membership. Yesterday, I managed to foul up his charts. This has been corrected. Some more goodies from Eric:

    Hi Bill,
    Again some notes regarding the Gold/HUI ratio. Going back three years it’s obvious clear that all bottoms in PM shares are characterized by an extreme undervaluation of these shares compared to Gold. The Gold/HUI ratio suggests according to its own history a bottom in PM shares within two weeks. Why ? Because PM share bottoms are characterized by RSI tops in the Gold/HUI ratio crossing the 70 mark. Each time it happened it didn’t stay there for more than two weeks !

    See chart below :



    So based on its own history we could suggest:

    PM shares do bottom at RSI tops > 70 of the Gold/HUI ratio.

    RSI tops > 70 mark the beginning of an uptrend in PM shares lasting 2 to 9 month.

    Each rally in PM shares which started from a RSI top >70 gained 50 to 130%.

    RSI tops > 70 have a very short life span (less than two weeks)

    Right now RSI crossed the 70 mark again, so PM shares bottoming within two weeks?

    Expected minimum gain of HUI is 50% within three month, so HUI >300 before end of Q1 2005

    Best, Eric


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    OK, back a tad to this WGC ETF stuff. First, a letter to a veteran Café member, a retired former executive giant in the metals industry:

    Date: Tue, 07 Dec 2004 12:20:43 -0500
    From: IMOCC
    Subject: RE: James Turk - More Questions About the ETF's Gold
    To: 'Hans Buehler'

    Dear Mr Buehler:

    1. In order to reach Mr. Greene, you need to send your emails to him at [email protected] [email protected] is not the correct email address for Mr. Greene. I thought I would help you in giving Mr. Greene's direct email address.

    2. The SEC is well aware of Mr. Turk's allegations and his urging his readership to start an email campaign to the SEC regarding this matter. The SEC has received all of your emails.

    3. As Mr. Greene indicated, as a matter of policy and law, the SEC staff cannot comment on this matter.

    Again, if you are going to send additional emails about this matter (or others) it would be more efficient to send them to [email protected]

    Thank you!


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    We are making tremendous progress in our continuing efforts to find out the truth about the gold market.

    On that note, here is a letter from a bank executive to GATA’s Chris Powell re the duplicate WGC ETF gold bars:

    Chris,
    I received a reply to the double counting question this morning from State Street Global Advisors (marketing agent for StreetTRACKS). They get the enclosed letter from HSBC (the Custodian).

    Not being an expert in gold stamping and the specifics of the rollback, I have no idea if its true or not. Thought you should know.
    John

    John,
    I hope this helps to answer your concerns. This letter is actually from a contact at HSBC, the custodian. Regards,
    John Davidson
    SSgA Advisor Strategies

    * * *

    BANK OF NEW YORK-STREET TRACKS
    1 WALL STREET
    NEW YORK NY 10015
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    7 December 2004

    Dear Sir,

    With reference to HSBC 's role as Custodian for the Streettracks Gold Trust we are writing to you to clarify why a number of bars which have been allocated to the Trust allocated gold account with HSBC have the same bar number .

    This has arisen because in 2002 the manufacturer of those particular bars , Johnson Matthey UK ,changed the shape of the Good Delivery gold bars that they produced. At the same time Johnson Matthey re-wound their sequential gold bar stamping machine back to number 0001 and continued using the sequential numbers up until the end of 2002.

    At the beginning of 2003 the sequential stamp was again re-wound back to number 0001 by Johnson Matthey Uk and they continued to stamp bars in sequence up until the closure of their UK production plant in 2004.

    As a result of this there are a number of gold bars that have duplicate bar numbers. However in cases where the bar numbers are duplicated the manufacturing year is different and, in most cases, the fine weight of each bar is also different.

    There is no duplication of any gold bar.

    We trust the above explanation satisfies your position as Trustee and we can confirm that the bar list provided to you is a completely accurate reflection of the physical gold that is held by HSBC on behalf of the Trust . This of course can be verified by independent audit as required.

    Yours very truly,

    A.J.DEAN


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    The GATA camp is looking into the veracity of the contents of the letter. As always, we are only after the right scoop. Any way you look at it, this debunks what Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk stated yesterday about duplicate bar numbers. If this occurred, it was an exception, not the yearly rule for gold bars, as Norman exclaimed.

    This broker ought to be fired. From a fellow Café member:

    I strongly suspect that some of my PM shares have been shorted as described in several Midas postings including the possible use of counterfeit shares. The last time I broached the subject with my broker he became incensed that I would ask for stock certificates. Do I have a legal right to request them? Can the broker say no? He suggested we might want to close my account.

    Please let me know if I can legally demand getting stock certificates for my shares. Thanks.


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    Hi Bill,
    Intervention Trumps Fundamentals

    Seems five o'clock Charlie finally landed a bomb on target. If you drop enough dumb bombs, eventually you'll hit something. Personally, I'm feeling more like Charlie Brown. Every time I think Lucy won't pull the football away when I go to kick it, she does. I always think she's being truthful when she promises that she won't, but it's always a lie. I always think the economic fundamentals will matter, but intervention trumps them every time. My guestimate is that both the European and Japanese Central Banks have a hand in this trashing of gold, as the game of beggar thy neighbor continues. As distressed as I am with more horrific losses, I take consolation in the fact that when the music is over, I won't be looking for a chair the way these fiat currency players will, because I already have a throne of gold. This too shall pass. We knew the volatility would be violent as these titans battle their currency wars. Nothing has changed in the fundamentals concerning the USD vs. the Euro Rich.


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    What is likely to be occurring all over the world:

    Bill,
    Arrived in Canada, at a major bank, standing in line for currency and Gold, longest line, in fact the only line. People in front of me were buying Gold Coins and bars, Indian couple. A girl behind me was quoting the prices to a friend and asked how much Gold she wanted. At that time it was trading around $436 which is the quote the tller gave me. Plus the premiums and etc.
    Physical buyers are coming out on any weakness.
    Cheers,
    John


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    Today is a day of enormous emotion for many reasons. Thus, Derek Van Artsdalen’s piece of some time back is a good one to review to put this all in big-picture perspective.

    Gold Price Volatility: A Gold Bug’s Best Friend

    Comparing the current gold market to “the Big One” back in the late seventies, I thought you gold bugs out there might be encouraged by the following information…

    By my calculations, there were five double-digit corrections (that is, declines from monthly peaks that were equal to or greater than 10%) in the great gold bull market from 1976 to January 1980. You may be amazed at the secret they reveal!

    1) In January ’77, the gold price had declined 12.86% from its peak for the move. Within 10 weeks, the price shot up 27% off its bottom for the move (all data using London PM fix), blowing away the old highs. The POG was now 26% higher than where it began.

    2) In June ’77, the gold price had declined 10.71% from its peak for the move. Within 18 weeks, the price increased 20%. Within 18 weeks after that, the price had soared a total of 40%! The POG was now 84% higher than where it began.

    3) In April ’78, the gold price had declined 15.32% from its peak for the move (“Holy stop loss, Batman! The Joker has taken over Gotham!”). But not to worry, Boy Wonder, for within 24 weeks the metal came back to life and climbed an astounding 50%. The POG was now 135% higher than where it began.

    4) In November ’78, the gold price had declined a heart-stopping 20.33% from its peak for the move (“Please don’t leave me, honey. My broker says I can recoup all our losses by investing in pork bellies!”). Within only 12 weeks of this devastating decline, the price of gold jumped an additional 30%. Gold bugs who hadn’t yet leaped out of high-rise office building windows now enjoyed a POG that was 144% higher than where it began in August of ’76.

    Incidentally, with all these impressive boosts in the price of gold, you may be shocked to learn that it was still selling for a measly two hundred and fifty bucks!

    5) The final double-digit decline in the POG (before the big blow-off top in January 1980) came in October ’79. At that time, the POG had fallen 12.49% from its peak for the move. Within only 15 weeks — and please read the following statement twice if you’re considering bailing out of the current gold market right now — the price of gold went stratospheric and exploded about 128.00% from its low for the move.

    From its humble beginnings at $103.50 less than three and a half years earlier, the price of gold had zoomed up nearly 800%, causing heartbreak and disappointment among non-believers all along the way. Many a gold bug was undoubtedly shaken out of his positions because of his own defeatist thinking.

    The point is this: when the prices of the precious metals become most volatile is when they begin their most impressive performances. For precious metals investors and newsletter advisors to keep screaming that the sky is falling shows a complete lack of knowledge of both investing and history. Cabal or no cabal, every market is going to have its ups and downs.

    And thank heaven they do! Dull markets don’t make many folks rich (except insider fat cats who rig them for their own nefarious purposes). For us non-insiders, though, it’s the volatile markets where all the money is made. Today’s price action in the metals pits may be just the signal we’ve all been waiting for that big price advances are imminent.

    There’s just one problem: you’ve got to be in ‘em to win ‘em! (right, Bill Murphy?)

    Unless you’re a nimble trader, stay invested. Don’t panic. Along with momentum, financial imbalances, geo-political realities and plain old common sense, history, too, is on our side.
    Derek K. Van Artsdalen
    [email protected]

    To give you some idea of what a charade the gold scam is, take a look at this HUI chart. It goes straight down. Then, collapses earlier today with gold down nearly $20 per ounce, causing near panic selling in the share sector. The HUI drops to 207.77, then reverses course to close at 215.10, down only 3.52. At the same time, The Gold Cartel forces are buying on the Comex like crazy. Here’s dollars to donuts they were doing the same in the share sector.

    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=hui&sid=0&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

    The XAU closed at 98.80, down 1.45.

    Chuck checked in this afternoon:

    This day had the finality feel that I thought must end the entire move from last December. A lot of volume in the shares even in the juniors and some good bounces. This was the first time in a long while that the shares were better than the metal. Let's see where we go from here, although a time of base building would be expected.

    Also, when the stock market starts to weaken I anticipate some more help for gold and the shares. This is the third consecutive year where the golds have weakened in December and/or the beginning of January. That is extremely unusual. I strongly feel that it portends a major upward move all through next year. Chuck

    Without a doubt we are finally making a bottom in the share sector. By early next year prices will be much higher than they are now. MUCH HIGHER! Don’t be left behind. With today’s orchestrated gold slaughter, many of the share prices are trading less than 50% from where they were with gold $12 lower a year ago. The Gold Cartel has done their thing. My bet is they are in there buying all the gold and silver shares they can at the moment.

    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

    MIDAS

    Appendix

    Some sound input from DOWN UNDER country:

    G’day Bill,
    Dear oh dear oh dear,

    The US$ has been knockin' on the 80 in the Index door over the last few days. Tonight it stands 82.37:. at the start of a rally?!

    Other Indices:



    Gold, has been, yet again short sold.

    The Australian Gold stocks have been sold off during the last three sessions, and with tonight's Gold action, these stocks have zero life in them.

    It is quite amazing that here in Australia, in particular Western Australia, that exploration companies are always trying to seek a window of opportunity to raise funds, via a rising Gold price.

    Exploration companies, in general, still fail to address the Native Title issue, and here in Western Australia, some 12,000 pending mining tenements are still waiting to be granted, and are subject to the “Right to Negotiate” by the Traditional Owners.

    Based upon a Section 35 process under the Native Title Act 1994, one company has recently gained Land Access on one tenements after a year of discussions, negotiations, and process thru the Native Title Tribunal. To take things to the extreme, it “could” take, in theory, some 12,000 years to get all 12,000 tenements granted.

    This does not bid well for the future of the Industry.

    An observation that I have made is that the Traditional Owners work in the “dream time:, and certainly not in the “Swiss watch time”. They are in no rush, none at all.

    The Western Australian Government is losing money “hand over fist”, and they require for example $500 million a year to fund hospitals and the police force.

    The State Government intends to amend the Mining Act some time in middle 2005, whereby tenement holders will be required to “use it or lose it”, and will be required to negotiate with the Traditional Owners over a 4 month period, and will only get a Mining lease granted conditional upon a Notice of Intent and a JORC reserve being defined; this information will have to be provided to the Native Title Group, in order for them to be fully informed, which is not required at present.

    Recently I have negotiated a Land Access Agreement with the Wongatha People to get Land Access in any part of their claim, which covers 25% of all tenements in Western Australia. This Agreement is unique within the Australian Mining Industry. I am also negotiating similar deals with other Native Title Groups. In essence, the Agreement will open up the land for my company.

    So, what is next for the Mining Industry? It looks like the hyperinflationary cycle has now started in the US economy. The “powers that be” really do not care about the creation of additional debt and credit.. in particular the “Gold Credit card bill” that simply cannot be paid. They are living in “La La Land”, or should I say America!!

    This hyperinflation is not good for the Mining Industry, with the ongoing short selling of Gold, until such time as the coffers are totally empty of Gold. How long will this take? Certainly not in the “Dream time”!!!

    Och aye
    Haggis




 
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