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SPI 7.2¢

23 Day Cycle Strikes Again

  1. JC2

    4,397 Posts.

    After predicting the 6/8 low(spot on), I suggested there would be a minor low on 6/9(spot on).

    I suggested the major bottom would be on 6/10. However just prior to that date I observed that there was a 23 trading day cycle in effect and said that would indicate that the low would fall on 9/10 +/- 1 day.(It came on 10/10)

    I said that 11/11 would bring in the first higher bottom. It seems that the 1 day shift in the 23 day cycle last time remains in effect and so the low fell on 12/11.(I always allow for +/- 1 day on short term cycles anyway, and a little more on larger cycles)

    Of course the first higher bottom is yet to be proved.

    I am stilled concerned that the monthly indicators although close to oversold are not quite there. This may be achieved by a further basing period over the next month or two.

    I have an intermediate cycle low due around the 11/1/03(not as important as the one in October last). Two more 23 day cycles come in about 15/1/03. Of note is that 16/1 and 17/1 are anniversay dates for the low of 1991, the start of the Gulf war.(last time)

    A couple of minor points of note. As of 2 days ago the directors of PMC(probably amongst the most astute of fund managers) began to buy their own shares after selling some time ago). I also note that the bollinger bands on US markets have narrowed considerably, suggesting an imminent breakout in some direction.

    I am aware that Elliotticians believe we are entering a 3 of 5 on the downside and I respect their views. Certainly any break of 12/11 would be a major argument in their favour.

    I have a 127 year chart of the AUS market and the 1974 to 2000 bull market is a classic EW pattern completed by a rising wedge.(viewed on a log basis) This is scary to say the least suggesting a quick move to the '87 lows and the the possibility of an eventual move to the long term trend line of around 650. However the history of this market is upward and onward so when I feel panicked I console myself with that thought.

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