Originally posted by greenhartOne hottest year is not a big...

  1. 1,113 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 8
    With hottest years skewed towards the more recent past, this would indicate that (i) we are now in record territory, and
    (ii) we continue to be in an upwards heating trend. In themselves, those two factors are not necessarily a cause for concern.


    That's because these "Hottest on Record" pronouncements tell us nothing whatsoever about the rate of heating, which is the most critical factor.


    For example: Lets choose a particular data set, covering 100 years, and this data set shows that we've warmed 1.25 degrees over that time. Now let's say we set 5 new "hottest ever" records spaced out over the next 15 years, as follows:


    1.26, 1.27, 1.28, 1,29 and 1.30 degrees. This gives us 0.05 degrees / 15 years => 0.33 degrees per century.


    Thus 5 new heat records in the space of only 15 years SOUNDS frightening, but the trend (in this example) tells us there's little to worry about.

    Last edited by Tapdancer: 12/01/19
 
GET SUPPORT arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.