AGY 8.00% 13.5¢ argosy minerals limited

The signal from my model just predicts a lower low than...

  1. 4,486 Posts.
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    The signal from my model just predicts a lower low than yesterdays close.

    It does not necessarily mean that the close will be lower and it does close up just as often as down.
    What it is looking for is a lower price than todays close.
    So is we have been set up for another shakeout then we can just as easily close up.

    The support to watch is 0.18 imo so if I was trading short term that is where I would be sitting and waiting.

    Negatives in the short term.
    The significantly higher volume and the close at the low makes the chart look quite bearish, the support is under constant attack.
    Resistance is still at that blue down trending line currently around $0.205 & the next up is the red line around $0.225. The S/T support is $0.19 but imo the main one is 0.18.
    The stoch5 & 14 are still in the oversold area below 20.

    On the positive side I see the MACD possibly rising up to meet its sig line and the Histogram diverging from the MACD and has made three higher highs in a row as it closes on zero.
    The Stoch 5 has crossed its sig line & appears to be rising.

    So was the days action positive or negative?
    The inference given by the high vol & low close is negative but the days action does not confirm that.

    The last time the mm tried this on (attempt to break out, large spread, high volume close at the low etc) was 4 bars ago & it did not result in a further sell off so maybe this is just another attempt which will also fail.
    The last time did not produce any signals, this time it has. The signal just shows the potential for a lower low & not necessarily a lower close.

    We saw what the mm is capable of when they sold it down to $0.18 back in June.
    So despite the great quarterly and our positive expectations, Imo the potential is there for a major shakeout.
    That may just be a dip to test the rising support or 0.18 without necessarily closing lower.

    No one knows the intentions or motivation of the mm and no one has a model to predict anything with 100% certainty.

    All I am sure of is that at this point in time the risk of a trade is very high for someone that cant afford to sit it out in the event that the sp does move down to where the charts are indicating is a possibility.
    All this is only short term and has no affect in the long term so an entry anywhere at these low prices is good.

    Bring on the next update.
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