06/14/02 3.55 3.69 3.55 3.69 +0.17 2300 +4.83 % , page-3

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    Rise/in share priceFebruary, 2002 Valuations $U.S. From the $4.00 level.----------------------- bonkers 3 February, 2002 19:43
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    Predicting a rise in share price.----------- bonkers 3 February, 2002 19:40
    67 Next quarterly filing est 14/2/2002.-------- bonkers 2 February, 2002 13:05


    Hi Kooka.valuations.16/2/2002.
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    Hi Kooka, he does not endorse the company as you know and we simply asked him what his opinion was with regards to valuations.
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    KJ68 is as you are aware is a value seeker, I have had over two years contact with others who have a more growth oriented approach, the value side of things rules supreme on the markets now, should growth return, the valuation is much higher.
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    The latest BNP forecast is long term buy I think the valuation is $17.75c
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    Might say with the above I ignore all brokers and valuations, they are applicable to the market place, for you get the ramping effect and it is nice to have.
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    In my own mind, valuation is a lot higher and I have met in times past the person who writes the reports for BNP and he knows I believe in the company as I know he does.
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    Subject to the entity fulfilling all that is necessary to obtain main board listing on Nasdaq one day (whenever that may occur--could be many years hence) I'm not tempted to sell at 4 Australian dollars, for it will then be not only worth more as a company---but traded along higher multiples.
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    As smartcards get more popular the number of transcations done will increase.
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    Cheers,--BK.
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    Hi Pocketwatch--valuations.CAT.
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    Hi Watch, down below is not my work.
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    The person who wrote this piece is not a technology type person and without wishing to speak on his behalf not really a lover of anything with dot com after it's name! LOL
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    He is accredited and is more of a value person, here are his thoughts (and he does not in any way shape fashion or form endorse CAT)--we asked him what he thought.
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    I haven't altered his words in any way--just to highlight.
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    On another note post 1954 on the ERG thread is a conversation with David MacSmith I had several months ago.
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    Cheers,--BK.
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    http://www.ozestock.com.au/MessageView.asp?PostID=87061&Symbol=CAT
    PQ, I'll put some rough projections down, but please understand I do not know a great deal about CAT and as such I am making a lot of assumptions when calculating my figures.
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    Using the bottom of the range from your projected revenue figures and assuming that there is very little marginal cost in supplying the CAT software and therefore assuming that CAT's expenses will not change a great deal from your figure of $6.6 million ($US I assume?)I come to a share price of $US6.80.
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    I stress these figures are very rough and make a great number of assumptions. I used a p/e of 10, which although some may argue is too low I think is conservative and appropriate for something which if we assume doesn't develop any other products just becomes a reliable cash flow producer.
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    If we use the top of your revenue projections then the share price moves out towards $US22.
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    Obviously these projections for the CAT share price make the assumption that the Visa deal goes ahead and the revenues are close to what you predict.
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    Given that the projections are so far above the current share price makes me a little concerned that the Visa deal isn't a "done deal" otherwise the market would value CAT much higher than it does currently.
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    I am not making a recommendation on CAT with this post but just putting down a few thoughts.
    Good luck with it.

    Jon.
 
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