METALS-Supply fears drive lead and zinc to multi-year highs

  • LME/ShFE arb: http://bit.ly/2wZSAEz

(Updates throughout, moves dateline from Beijing)

Falling stockpiles and pollution alerts in a major industrial province of top metals producer China fuelled supply concerns on Friday and helped drive lead and zinc prices to multi-year highs, and aluminium to a two-week peak.

Industrial metals have broadly risen this week after data showed economic growth in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, accelerated for the first time in seven years.

"Based on the fundamentals and the technicals, prices are going to hit some new highs again," said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale.

CHINA POLLUTION: Zhengzhou, capital of key aluminium-smelting province Henan, raised its air pollution alert to red, the highest level, from Friday, meaning tighter curbs on output of industrial products including metals.

A similar alert in the lead production hub of Jiyuan, also in Henan, was downgraded to orange on Friday but strict curbs on production will remain until Jan. 21.

LEAD: Benchmark lead CMPB3 on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2 percent at $2,616 a tonne at 1214 GMT after hitting $2,630.50, the highest since August 2011.

STOCKS: Prices were supported by a 12,225-tonne fall in on-warrant stocks of lead in LME-registered warehouses to 85,000 tonnes, suggesting tighter supply. MPBSTX-TOTAL

DEMAND: Poor weather in China and the United States is tightening the physical market, said analysts at brokers Marex Spectron. Low temperatures cause car battery failures leading to higher replacement battery demand.

SUPPLY: Over 2014-2016, global mined lead supply shrank by roughly 500,000 tonnes, or 10 percent. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees a lead market deficit of 115,000 tonnes this year and 56,000 tonnes in 2019 after a 119,000 shortfall last year.

ZINC: LME zinc CMZN3 was up 1.7 percent at $3,433 a tonne after touching $3,444, the highest since 2007. The metal used to galvanise steel was on track for a sixth week of gains.

STOCKS: On-warrant LME stocks fell to 98,400 tonnes after 24,175 tonnes of cancellations on Friday. Total stocks at the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange are around 260,000 tonnes, down from 580,000 at the start of 2017. MZNSTX-TOTAL ZN-STX-SGH

SHORTFALL: Rising supplies of zinc over the next couple of years are unlikely to replenish dwindling inventories enough to halt rising prices.

ALUMINIUM: LME aluminium CMAL3 was up 0.6 percent at $2,255.50 a tonne after hitting $2,270.50, the highest since Jan. 2. It looked set to break technical resistance at its December peak of $2,290.50 to reach a new 6-year high.

OTHER METALS: Copper CMCU3 was up 0.7 percent at $7,125 a tonne, nickel CMNI3 was 1.5 percent higher at $12,660 and tin CMSN3 had gained 0.6 percent to $20,560.

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Top base and precious metals analysis - GFMS     http://tmsnrt.rs/2lvmIzW 

LME/ShFE arb: http://bit.ly/2wZSAEz

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