ASX spikes as Oz CPI inflation clocks at 3.4% – defying expectations for uptick

ASX News
27 Mar 2024 11:32 (AEDT)

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the latest CPI inflation data for the nation, revealing February inflation clocked in at 3.4%.

Core inflation remains at 3.9%.

The ASX200 in turn immediately spiked upwards to 0.16% only one minute following the release.

It was trading flat, up just 0.06% right before the figures were released. The domestic tech index was down -0.33%.

“Annual inflation was unchanged in February and has been 3.4 per cent for three consecutive months,” ABS price stats chief Michelle Marquardt said.

“When excluding volatile items from the monthly CPI indicator, the annual [core inflation] rise to February was 3.9 per cent, down from 4.1 per cent to January.

“Annual inflation excluding volatile items has continued to slow over the last 14 months from a high of 7.2 per cent in December 2022.”

There had been a fairly wide range on analyst expectations, from 3.4% up to 3.8%.

Higher fuel prices, a lack of retail sales, and rising rental and construction costs were all tipped to be factors.

The official breakdown of expectations went like this, for those playing at home:

  • NAB: Analysts called CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.6% (y/y) from 3.4%
  • ANZ: Analysts called CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.5%
  • Westpac: Analysts called CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.8%
  • Commonwealth: Analysts also called data to rise to 3.8%
  • AMP: Chief economist Shane Oliver called CPI data to reflect a rise to 3.7%
  • Bloomberg: A survey conducted by the media giant put consensus at 3.5%

TD Securities expected it to be unchanged from the last monthly read of 3.4% y/y. They were the only ones to get it right.


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