XJO 0.99% 7,896.9 s&p/asx 200

Up again. Wednesday Evening Liqueurs. 1 July, 2015. XJO up...

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    Up again. Wednesday Evening Liqueurs. 1 July, 2015.

    XJO up +1.04% on below average volume. That's not a problem.



    The index is back above the first line of resistance. That's positive.

    Indicators have turned up and generally showing positive divergences. AOK.

    A.VIX Chart:



    A.VIX has fallen below the previous high - so fear is dropping out of the market. It is still elevated but the trend is to the downside.

    Digging through all the data I collect revealed an interesting item.

    Here's the Ratio Chart for UpVol/(DownVol+UpVol), i.e., the % of Volume going into Advancing Stocks compared to the Volume going into all stocks Advancing and Declining.



    Today's UpVol/(DownVol+UpVol) went above 80%. That's only the fifth time in the past two years that's occurred.

    There tends to be a seasonal factor in this data - two of the instances were in the end of year holiday period. That's a period that tends to be bullish and also affected by low overall volumes.

    The previous two instances are more interesting.

    They occurred at the end of the big May-July 2013 pull-back.

    Such a high ratio is an indication of accumulation by the "smart money".

    That doesn't mean we'll see a big up day tomorrow. But the chances of the market being higher in two months time are enhanced. We might need to see another such instance to be sure about this - but at this stage it is looking very likely that big money is in an accumulation phase. That's great for the hopes of a sustainable bull rally.

    RB.
 
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